NBA Best Bets Monday March 18th
I'm currently overexposed, but it wont end up that way
Sunday marked the end of the 7 straight slate win streak! But just like I said during a recent cold streak, it takes more that one day to make or break a streak. Iām hoping to keep it going with already 3 strong spots on the Monday card.
š NBA Best Bets Monday March 18th š
Miami Heat +4.5 (3u)
Heat @ 76ers Under 215.5 (7u)
I emptied my Bet365 account on these two lines, and in hindsight, I probably should have deposited more, also played the moneyline, and doubled this already massive bet. The Miami Heat are on the second leg of a road back to back, eeking out a late win with a Bam Adebayo buzzer beater three. The key here was Butler sat the game, likely as a rest spot in anticipation of playing vs the 76ers. Early line movement would suggest Butler is in, and he played 31 minutes the previous game without injury. The 76ers are likely to be without Tobias Harris in addition to the lingering injuries of Embiid, Melton, and Covington. Both of the teams are really struggling to score. I saw 213.5s popping up on the board when Bet365 had the lone 215.5, which was the opening line they were late to move. I am 100% going to play some of this back, the current lines are Heat +2 and Ov/Un 210. I am probably going to take some of it before I go to bed in about two hours because I do not want to miss a good number and the spot from 210-215.5 is massive value. Timing the market is important, but also take into account your personal schedule and ability to watch it!
Wolves -7 (0.75u)
I grabbed the Wolves -7 because it was the only -7 on the board while everywhere else was 7.5. Knowing that 7 is the most common NBA outcome, it was valuable simply to grab it. I was also tacking on the trick to play 2 game ābaseball seriesā sets back towards the first game closing lines, which was Wolves -8 and they covered. The reason why this line opened at -7, slightly below the previous -8 close was because Markannen and Clarkson were questionable instead of out. I played it small for 0.75u because of my uncertainty to which way those go. If they are in, Iāll probably be on the wrong side, if they are out, smart play.
Suns 25:1 NBA Title (2u, BetRivers)
I personally am out on the Suns. They have no point of attack defense and no rim protection, a brutal combination for trying to get through four playoff rounds. They lack physicality. They have a math problem seeking mid range jumpers against teams that hunt dunks and threes. They are held up by injury prone players. Iām out, Iām out, Iām outtttt.
But how many times have I said I do not bet on my basketball opinions. And if we look at the pricing of this line compared to the storyline and pricing throughout the season, this has gone too far. The Suns have been 18:1 or less all season long, while they were not healthy! Now they get healthy, have some expected rust, end up dropping one bad game with a late Giannis scratch, and the line drops to 25:1. That is an overreaction. Scoooooped that up quick! I would be ZERO shocked if the Suns have a scorched earth run over two weeks and end up becoming the third title favorite behind Denver and Boston like they were most of the season.
Right now this is the first NBA Title move I have made since my very first posts on this substack where I released OKC 120:1, Pacers 500:1 and Rockets 500:1. I took a few longshots before win totals and playoff odds even released because I knew they were going to be offseason buyers. Those all turned out great, but Suns 25:1 probably has the second most equity already behind the OKC ticket. My hope is these two DO NOT match up in round 1.