NBA Best Bets Saturday 10/28
What a wonderful week of NBA betting, starting off with a dominant +6.91u in just three slates. See the photo below for how I track all of my plays. I can sort by date/pick type/odds/and have baked in formulas to self calculate the rest. Tracking is so important to successful gambling. While this document is specific to my approach, if you don’t track your bets, reach out to me, I can direct you to some resources that help get you started.
Ok lets hit the 4 Best Bets for NBA Saturday! The theme is fade the team on the second leg of the early season back to back.
1. Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 (DraftKings, 1u)
This is just as much as a fade the Raptors spot as it is a back the 76ers. The Raptors are slightly over preforming, coming off a back to back game that went to over time, and are traveling home on the second leg of a back to back. Despite being the home team, the 76ers have been rested and waiting for them in their home town. Its a tough schedule spot early season for the raps, and I’m sure its one where the 76ers want to get their first win. Nick Nurse revenge game angle as he visits his former team. He knows these players well, which means knowing how to stop them from doing what they like.
2. Pelicans -3.5 (DraftKings, 1u)
Fade the team on the back to back is the concept yet again! Knicks just played the Hawks on the road, now travel to New Orleans to take on the healthy pels. We know the pels when they have their main pieces are damn near a title competitor, and likely a tier above the Knicks. The line opened at 3.5 and Circa made a quick move to 4. They are a sharp book and moves there matter. See it, find another 3.5, bet it, and capitalize on line shopping.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves -4 (Draftkings, 1u)
Miami Heat are the team on the second leg of a road back to back. Minnesota is rested and a tough arena to play in, especially on a home opener. Now I am so uncertain on this wolves team, but I'll give them another chance to burn me against the Heat, pun intended.
4. Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls Under 218.5 (-105 BetMGM, 0.75u)
Piston Underz baby! They lack shooting, they play slow. The same can be said for this Bulls team with midrange Demar and Low post Vuc running the offense. Both teams on the second leg of a B2B, which is sometimes questionable for defensive effort and can just lead to easy buckets in transition and actually an uptempo pace; but both teams are coming off a win so I hope the early season intensity remains. I’m playing only 0.75u because of the counter angle on pace and because the market did correct quite a few points from the Pistons under 226.5 we played today.
*Always curious which bets you guys like and dislike! Let me know in the comments!
Other news: Week 8 NFL Slate Breakdown podcast is posted! It has all my best bets/explanations/and unit exposure risked. I will send that email sometime tomorrow as those games are happening Sunday. But if you want that info now with hopes to tail those bets, go listen to the podcast!