NBA Best Bets Saturday December 2nd
I spy a really bad line!
Last night was a wash. 1-1 on plays I gave out, I ended up doing some buyback on Knicks +3 when Randle was "“likely to play” and there was no mention of Brunson on the injury report. I had gained enough CLV from Raptors -1.5 to make the middle a decent decision, and my original bet position hinged on the idea that it was a potential rest spot for the Knicks stars. They were coming off a physical game, going on a road B2B, and have the IST next week. I should have known a Thibs team doesn’t take nights off; Brunson played another 37 and Randle 35.
I also did a losing buyback on the Mavs/Grizzlies over. The Grizzlies shot quality score has been much better than their shooting splits and point totals show; and the Mavericks can play faster without Luka who dominates in half court sets. When the line dropped hard from my original Under 230, I played some Over 225. Overall it was a complete wash where I ate some vig loss, got taken for -0.3units and lost a pizza… We move on.
There are really good spots developing on this NBA Saturday card, and no place better to start than where I spy a really bad line. Check this nonsense out!
Indiana Pacers +4
This line is stuck in no mans land because Haliburton is questionable with a knee bruise. Not only do I think he will try and suit up, I think this bet ticket wont even be dead if he is ruled out. There is also some flexibility in the market, let me explain.
The Pacers have not played well recently, entering this game losing 3 of their last 4 contests (vs not great teams), and they have the IST vs the Celtics up next. I think it will be important for them to emphasize playing more mistake free basketball like they did earlier this season, and that starts with Haliburton - who always is low turnover for his usage. We also have Bam already ruled out for the Heat. This is the second game of the baseball series scheduling, where the game 1 line closed at 3.5/4 with Bam and Jimmy playing. Now Bam is out and if Hali plays, this is moving hard towards Pacers.
The flexibility in the market exists because PointsBet is the only place with a +4. I can watch the board for some of the available Heat -3s to start moving to 3.5 or 2.5, or for the Heat -3.5s to turn to 3 or 4 and make a snap decision to get off ticket and take some vig loss with a push chance to win.
Its a play with a high ceiling and low floor.
Thunder -3/-3.5
This feels like a similar situation, so I’ll make it a shorter write up. Luka missed Friday’s game for personal reasons, and coach Jason Kidd said Kyrie is uncertain to play on Saturday. If either miss this game, the line prob stays or gains 1 point of CLV. If both miss this game, Thunder -3 becomes an amazing ticket to have. I’ll play the road favorite that also has some matchup advantages here as the Mavericks cant bully OKC on the inside, and OKC has length at the guard positions/wing defenders like Dort to throw Luka (if he plays) lots of different looks.
Clippers -5
Straight line movement cap. Opening line 4.5, quick move to 5.5 and 5s, so I grabbed a 5. This is also the second consecutive games these teams have played, but it is a home and home where now the Clippers are back in the Lakers building 😂😂. We know 7/5/6/8 are the 4 NBA key numbers, so we get a push or all of them on our side. We know the Warriors are down CP3 and GP2, while the Clips continue to be surprisingly very healthy.
My one concern is that the Warriors unit has played so many minutes together and this Clippers core has not, and sometimes that continuity shows up. Ty Lue is knwon for his adjustments, but he is also an excellent defensive coach it is soooo underrated. Combine those two components and hopefully he can coach his guys to be prepared for those backdoor cuts and perfectly timed moments the Warriors have on lock.
Note: I intentionally put no unit exposure on these plays because you have the autonomy to decide for yourself! Read the cap, understand the process, evaluate the numbers you have access to, and play it in the way you see fit. My basic principles are that 1unit = 1.2% of my bankroll, and my general rule for max exposure is 3units on a line.
I am willing to (and often do) bet more than that when I see an opportunity to attack a line thats going to move, with a plan to play it back the other way for the middle. But that is also relative to things like my schedule. I know I am spending my Saturday working and will have the lines readily available the whole time to make a snap decision. If I had a hot date tomorrow (not that I know what that is), I’d have 1unit plays.
Jeez I’m cookin in this email, plays and funny remarks. Hope you enjoyed!