NBA Best Bets Saturday January 20th

No NFL bets so far!

Last night I got caught in no mans land on a bet! I had played the Nets/Lakers Under 229.5 for 2u. The line had moved to 227 for most of the day. A little over an hour before tip, it was as low as 224.5 and I was planning for the 50% buyback and opening a 5 point middle. That sounds lovely! Until in the blink of an eye, AD and Lebron are confirmed as starting, and the total ticks back to 227.5 and my opportunity to middle is gone. Now I am holding a still valuable CLV ticket into the contest and either letting it ride or looking for an early buyback to open that middle. Well, in the first quarter both teams had stretches of hitting 7 straight shots, including some moon ball Cam Thomas 3s, and the live line sat above 230 for the rest of time. I got caught without being able to valuably pivot, caught in a pickle!

Anyways, as I was watching the games I was capping the next day and saw some clear as day sharp sides. Let’s break them down.

🏀 NBA Best Bets Saturday January 20th 🏀

Timberwolves -2.5 (2u)
Both teams enter this contest with more or less a clean bill of health, as the only rotation player on either side who may miss is Lou Dort who is questionable with an illness. The biggest difference here is what both teams have faced recently. The Timberwolves have been home for the last 4 days and have played the Grizzlies and Pistons in their last two contests. The Thunder are on their 4th consecutive road game, dropped two in LA on a B2B to Crypto Arena Combo (Lakers & Clippers), and then had a 4th quarter come from behind victory in elevation against Utah. This game has the looks of being an intense matchup used as a playoff checkpoint, but the Wolves enter situationally with a large advantage the spread has not properly priced in. I would play this out to -3.5 and am going 1.5x-2x unit exposure. There is also obvious sharp signals and likely more movement coming!

Cavs -2 (1u)
There are numerous key reasons to back the road favorite Cleveland Cavaliers in this matchup. The Hawks are on the second leg of a B2B and are traveling home after a physical divisional game vs Miami. Former GM and basketball insider John Hollinger noted during the Heat/Hawks game how late the 3Q was starting, and how that would impact the Hawks travel schedule and next game. The turnaround time is even tighter than normal.

We also have trade rumors swirling around the Hawks team, as well as an illness! Dejounte Murray was posting pictures of the Heat rafters in an effort to be traded, and Trae Young missed the game being sick. The culture and chemistry is likely at all time low this season, which has already been lackluster and disappointing.

Finally, the Cavaliers are playing great basketball with a simplified pick n roll game between Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen. It is very reminiscent of the old Mitchell/Gobert Jazz, which churned out regular season wins. The sharps are lining up on this side, it is likely to move out to -3 or beyond, but the number at -2 still sits below the top 6 most common NBA outcomes, and thus backing the favorite ATS is the best value bet for this game.

PS: As of now I have no NFL action this weekend! Good luck if you do! If anything comes up today for tomorrow, I will blast it out!