NBA Best Bets Saturday January 27th
Great Friday going 3-1, +1.1unit.
Philosophical betting question… should a bettor document and track ties? Technically it was 3-1-1, but personally I just remove the pushes from my tracker. I think pushes have little to learn from and cloud statistics when reflecting back. It is very important to know how often some numbers land on a push, like 5 is the most frequent push number but 2nd most common NBA outcome, but relative to my individual bets thats pretty meaningless. So I wash them, and say I went 3-1. Let me know in the comments if you see reason to track a push that I am missing!
🏀 NBA Best Bets Saturday January 27th 🏀
Jazz @ Hornets Under 237.5/237 (3u)
Been a while since a 3u play! At first I thought I wouldnt bet anything, then I noticed this and started to dig, and loved it. It sat at DraftKings at 237.5, with a 236 at Fanduel. When I saw the 1.5 point market discrepancy I dug into the numbers and noticed the sharp side is the under. There are still 237s in multiple places while numbers as low as 235.5 pop up at books like BetRivers with a juiced under to -112. These are noteworthy moves and means play into it with some authority! Chance this moves big. I played for 2u on the original 237.5, another unit on the under 237, and chances are I will look to play this back live for a middle. If you cannot open the middle, then play 1unit not 3. The plan right now is to playback my 2u on the under 237.5, and let the 1u on the under 237 ride.
Miami Heat ATS + ML Combo (0.75u ATS + 0.5u ML is the probable split)
I have not bet this yet, but I very much plan to. Right now the numbers are backing the Knicks, they opened as a -4.5 favorite and are out to a universal -5 with even -5.5s popping up. Give. Me. The. Other. Side. Stand on it! The Miami Heat will enter this game on a 5 game losing skid, but the key is returning to full health here. Jacquez, Love, Butler, Bam, Herro, Robinson, Rozier, Martin, Highsmith… all the Miami rotation players who have been flipping back and forth faster than In n Out burgers are expected to be active. Bam is speaking about how desperate the Heat need to play. Spo has an incredible track record against Thibs. In what feels like a must win, cultural reset for Heat Culture, give me the Heat in a contrarian angle. I will keep watching the numbers. If it keeps going towards Knicks, I will get my action in minutes before tip. If there is some resistance and it reaches a stale point and even moves the other way, I will place my ticket then. Right now, Fanduel has Miami +5.5 and +180 ML as the best available numbers.
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