NBA Best Bets Saturday March 16th
Going for 7 Straight Winning Slates!
🏀 NBA Best Bets Saturday March 16th 🏀
Hornets @ 76ers Under 209 (2u)
The easiest and biggest bet of the evening was hitting the under in this game. PointsBet had 209 on the board while FanDuel had 206.5. In the NBA market, Fanduel is a faster/sharper book and often sets market consensus between the retail sportsbooks. Despite only two books being online at the time of betting this, I knew to play into the direction of the FD line. I was actually surprised to see them meet in the middle, and not PB just match FD. I knew to play for more than 1unit because the 2.5 points of discrepancy at the the time of betting. I also knew not to go very big because only 2 books had lines, so there wasnt enough market info to make a huge play.
Lakers -3 (-109, 1u)
Steph Curry indicated that the plan was to return for this Lakers game- so I do think this is priced with Steph as likely to play and will not fluctuate much when he is deemed active. The Lakers size has always given this Warriors team fits, they are up 2-1 on the season series, and beat the Warriors in the playoffs last season. I am playing into the matchup advantage, the home court, the health and continuity, and the urgency to take all of these games very seriously.
DUMPED:
Nets @ Pacers Un 228.5 (1u)
Nets @ Pacers Ov 228 (1u)
My second bet placed yesterday was on Pacers/Nets Under 228.5. At the time, most other books were hanging lines around 228/227.5, and betting splits showed strong handle on the under. I topped on the league wide trend of unders cashing and lines moving strongly south from open- and simple eyes of watching the Nets offense struggle. I thought- ok, here we have another under spot. Until the numbers that had dropped started to bounce back! Now I knew some smart money was coming back on the over, and I would be hovering with more or less a flat ticket in a mixed market. I kept eyes on the board to see where this number would settle, and when all the 228s were going back to 228.5, I grabbed the last 228 to the over and “dumped” the ticket. Now I will go into the Saturday slate with likely 2 +CLV bets, and a 0.1unit loss eating some vig tax to work off a likely emerging -CLV position. I was able to do it so there is a chance I get lucky and this lands 228, and I still win one/push one, and come out profitable.
It is a nice reminder that once a bet is placed, there is still very much reason to keep eyes on the number and continue to evaluate the position.
