NBA Best Bets Saturday March 23rd
Including some Player Props!
Ended up down half a unit yesterday because of a late buyback, but it takes 2 days to make or break a streak and I am still on a heater, winning 11 of the last 13 days 🔥.
Before we get into todays Best Bets, I did the Action Network article on NBA Player Prop best bets for the day. I went and scoured the market and found Grayson Allen +170 for 2+ Steals, DeAaron Fox Un 24.5 Points (-110), and Clint Capela Ov 12.5 Points (+100). I am not including them in official Best Bets because I normally do not cap props, but you can read it at action (I’ll tweet it out once its public) for the reasoning.
I am also considering adding Suns/Spurs Under 229, so make sure to check my twitter for an added official play, but going to check again in an hour or so and wanted to get this out.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Saturday March 23rd 🏀
Hornets +9 (0.5u)
Hornets +350 ML (0.25u)
The Atlanta Hawks are nine point favorites right now? Without Trae, Jalen Johnson, Okongwu, Saddiq Bey, and a few others… This line feels so off for a Hornets team that has played competitively lately, and beat the Hawks in their last meeting. Ultimately it is backing the road underdog Charlotte Hornets, so not a big play, but I do imagine this line closes at 8 and +275, and this has some value to grab despite the ML being a low expected hit rate (it exceeds the implied on the ticket).
Celtics @ Bulls Ov 221.5 (0.75u)
Back to back set for the Celtics, so some uncertainty around who plays, but the Celtics have been playing most of their guys in these situations and just shoot so many 3s they can easily fly over this number. This felt like it had a strong sense of one sided movement, a Celtics total is not going to dip much lower than this, but it has room to climb if main players are active. On the Bulls side, Coby White is back and Derozen is still on a heater of his own.
Kings @ Magic Un 216.5 (-105, 0.5u)
This has been such a clear sharp side towards the under, which makes perfect sense with the Magic at home on a great win streak. I am worried about playing the Magic ATS because the level of recent competition, but this is a clear under market, a low vig, and a better number at ESPNBet than the rest of the market. The whole board is at 216 or 215.5 otherwise, and here we can grab a 216.5 at -105 vig. I do not expect this to move far enough to play back the other side at good value, so likely letting this ticket ride and this just a small play in a relatively flat market. I could even see going a bit the other way if this gets down to 214ish.
