NBA Best Bets Sunday March 3rd
Lebron is at the top of the key, one dribble to the right. He recognizes Michael Porter Jr. lined up against him. The Nuggets are playing a small ball lineup with Aaron Gordon dragged out to the perimeter and Justin Holiday guarding the dunkers spot. 2 points left to go until 40k, Lebron dribbles into his patented spin move layup and makes it look as easy as it was 20 years ago. The King has reached 40k. I cashed my large position 15% ROI.
I would also go on to lose the game total under 230.5 but it was another good night for the King and I, and hopefully some of you! I know I sent out the details on the Lebron 40K position before tweeting it or the odds shifting and quite a few people got it in.
Onto tomorrow… below are 3 positions I already took action on. Also I considered Spurs +6.5 and ML but couldn’t do it, I considered Mavericks -8 but didn’t do it yet, and I considered Thunder -2.5 but missed the quick line change when Booker got hurt to 4/4.5 and now don’t want to bother. I do not believe in leans- because ultimately the decision I made was to not bet it, so that would be my advice. But if you were also considering said side- maybe I tipped the scales for a small play. If I tack anything on, I’ll update my twitter but I want to get this out while the lines remain!
🏀 NBA Best Bets Sunday March 3rd 🏀
Cavaliers -4.5 (-115, 1u)
Knicks @ Cavaliers Ov 211.5 (0.75u)
Casual fans want to remember the playoff series between these two and how well the Knicks matched up, but right now these are way different teams. The Knicks are dealing with injuries and will be without their bruisers. The Cavaliers have added shooters- see Max Strus 60 pt game winner. Donovan Mitchell is questionable but I expect him to return and the total to tick up and spread to move past key numbers. I originally played the under 212.5, but I flipped it around to an over 211.5 for 2x original exposure and ate some vig loss in the process while being tilted 0.75u to the over.
Pistons @ Magic Un 219.5 (-108, 2u)
I was eyeing this at 220 and it moved as I clicked the button, womp. At least I got a -108, and was still willing to play for 2u. There are currently 218.5s on the board. This may be a hot take, but to me the most valuable betting trend is one that recognizes consistencies (trends) in line movements with teams. For ex, since the trade deadline damn near every Pistons opening total has moved down. Until the market shows some resistance, I’ll keep playing Pistons unders, especially at low vig, still ahead of the market, and against a young Magic team that prides itself on strong defense.
