NBA Best Bets Saturday March 2nd

shoutout Lebron for likely reaching 40k tonight!

Yesterday was a monumental day in my betting career. The morning started with an appearance on one of my favorite shows, The Ringer Gambling Podcast. The evening culminated with a simple 2-1, +0.9units night, but it was enough to tip the scales to make this season officially record setting for my personal handicapping career!

Coming into tonight, I was tied with my single season record at +74.9u, and the slight bump brings me to +75.8. WOW! Few notes about this:

1. While being in the same ballpark of units won, the amount of money won is not even close. As so often discussed in my principles of bankroll management, I scale up my bet size as I win. 1 unit represents 1.2% of my bankroll, and my bankroll is a bit thicker these days.

2. Of course there is risk that I lose units from hereon out, but considering my consistent track record and really strong open positions futures portfolio- I’d say the chances are slim.

3. We still have SO MUCH of the season left to go. The NBA Playoffs are typically the most profitable per game chunk of the season and what I find the easiest to handicap. There will be a lot of deep dives on tips for playoff betting on my podcast/newsletter upcoming!

Lets get to +100units, at least!! That starts with just one best bet tomorrow.

🏀 NBA Best Bet Saturday March 2nd 🏀

Nuggets @ Lakers Un 230.5 (1u)
The simplest explanation here is that I kind of expect Jamal Murray to sit this one out. He left the game against Miami with an ankle sprain and did not return. The Nuggets need to reach the playoffs in great health- it is the reason they breezed to an NBA title last season but couldn’t get over the hump in years prior. If Murray sits and is replaced my Braun and Reggie Jackson, the total dips to about 226.5, the pace slows, the two man game with Jokic is no longer the best 2 man game in the league.

Narrative wise I do expect a fast pace out of the gate with the 40k scoring benchmark just 9 points away. Look for Lebron to get that done in the 1st half with ease. If you missed getting a good number here, consider playing a live under as soon as Lebron hits the 40k mark, as the hype will naturally die down. (I only would consider doing this if it happens in the first half with a live total above 230).

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