NBA Best Bets Sunday February 25th
5 NBA Bets during a +5u week.
Well well well… yesterday I talked about getting unlucky and today, LUCKY WINS!
The Magic/Pistons game was a great handicap closing with +2 points of CLV. The teams came out playing a slow pace but shooting with unreal efficiency. 62 points in the 1Q, 120 at halftime- this was on pace to clear 230 the entire game. Then with about 5 minutes left both teams went ice cold while playing at a snails pace. The projected score quickly dropped and now overtime in a game down to the wire was the biggest concern.
Inset Paolo Banchero hitting a ridiculous game winning and-1 shot while also traveling and not having it called. Game over with less than 1 second left, no overtime, and the under cashes.
It has been a great week overall, being +5units in the 3 days since All Star Break. Le’ts attack tomorrows board with the same energy.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Sunday February 25th 🏀
Lakers @ Suns Under 239.5 (2u)
Late add! The Lakers and Suns are playing early tomorrow which is generally an indicator for an under. We also have line movement showing 237.5 starting to pop up. Vogel is a defensive minded coach and was formally the coach of the Lakers with Lebron and AD, so he should know how to throw looks at them to give them fits.
Dallas Mavericks -1 (0.75u)
The Mavericks enter this game on a 7 game win streak and I am looking to continue to ride such a hot and complete team. Since acquiring PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford, and returning Maxi Kleber from injury, the Mavericks have the ability to play small and big styles of basketball. Luka is so versatile to fit into and unlock either lineup, and it shows. Kyrie is having an excellent season too. These teams both made some big moves in the trade season, and the Mavericks seem to be gelling much quicker. There are going to be some monster performances in this game, if you play DFS just load up on these guys lol. Since its playing a -1 on a line that opened Mavs +1 and moved through the 0, its a low value number with little room for more movement. Therefore, small play despite liking the basketball angle.
Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors Under 233 (1u)
Clear sharp action on the under and I think it is an indicator of the expected injury report. The Warriors with Draymond back and now getting GPII has vastly improved their defense. The Nuggets have Jamal Murray listed as questionable after he missed last game. With the Warriors side getting some action too, I think its an early market signal Murray will remain out, which presents strongest value on the under. Jokic has crushed the Warriors in recent years- and the Nuggets can defintiely win without Murray. However, if the offense ran through Jokic even more- the game slows further.
OKC Thunder -5.5 (2u)
The Thunder are so freaking good. Last game vs the Clippers they made an awesome rotation adjustment to benching Giddey at the start the second half, and doing some out of timeout inbounding actions that were impressive. This team is talented, deep, young and energetic, and incredibly well coached (more on the coaching tomorrow).
Some insiders have hinted the adjustments the Thunder have been making recently are tipping the hand a bit for playoff tendencies but worth it because they are going for the #1 seed, they want it- and its continues with a road win over Houston. Houston is a good home team coming off a strong win against the Suns, but early signals show OKC steam at valuable numbers. I am getting in for my biggest play of the day. Originally posted 1.5u, bumping up to 2u cuz the line hasnt changed and maybe there becomes some live playback option at these value numbers.
Pelicans -2.5 (1u)
This is another bet with a hope that the injury report goes my way. Zion is questionable but has been playing every game with the Q tag recently. Brandon Ingram is expected to be back from his illness. CJ McCollum is already confirmed out, so that injury is priced in. I think we get Z and BI in, and the line closes closer to 5.5. There is big opportunity here, and the Pels could still easily win and cover with one of those guys out. Playing it for 1unit because big positions are not worth it without some really strong info on the injuries.
Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 (-115, 0.75u)
The sharp action on the Blazers here is so loud. I am grabbing the last -2.5 on the board which is a -115 line at BetMGM. It is still available, along with a bunch of -3 (-110s). Since I hate paying vig, and its a crappy team despite being the sharp side- I am going to play it small, but its worth some action for sure. I would do the same bet at the -3 (-110). I am fine selling high on the 4 out of the last 5 win stretch for the Hornets with new additions to the team and going on a road trip. FADE.
