NBA Best Bets Sunday March 10th
9 Game Sunday Slate with action!
🏀 NBA Best Bets Sunday March 10th 🏀
Pelicans -6 (-112, 1unit)
The New Orleans Pelicans have their entire core roster healthy and active and look dominant. I actually think this team is dangerous come playoff time, as they can score with anyone, defend on the perimeter, and play big and small. The Atlanta Hawks are just going the opposite direction with Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, and Okongwu all injured. Since the Pelicans are not even a great home court team I do not mind playing them as road favorites- especially grabbing the key 6 before the movement onto the 7.
Lakers -1 (-108, 0.75u)
Small play because the number on the ones is not super valuable, especially the -1 side. However, I have watched the Wolves a bit without Towns and this teams offense is stuck in the mud. They rely on Ant to do everything, and the Lakers should have the recipe to throw the first wing at him on the perimeter and have AD on the backend. Every game is key for LA at this point, and this situation reminds me a lot of the play in tournament game last year where LA beat the Wolves and Ant was overwhelmed. I expect this to close at 1.5-2.5 when AD and Lebron are ruled in. I have a low level of concern about AD showing some arm pain in the last game, but thats also reflected in the 0.75u risked play.
Kings -6 (-110, 1unit)
Kings/Rockets Ov 231.5 (-110, 0.75u)
We have a strong home team against the leagues worst road team this season. The Kings are starting to play much better after eeking out wins despite playing at a very .500 net differential. This was a simple cap of understanding the direction of both of these lines. I knew the 6 was moving to 6.5 almost everywhere else, and thats a valuable number to grab. I saw the total open at 228, and jump to 231.5-233.5. When I saw 231.5, I knew there was more room to go, but honestly I do not expect it to close at 233.5, probably a tick lower. I played the spread for more than the total because the number was more valuable, and the totals market had moved a lot before I jumped in. The favorite and over are correlated though (especially for the Kings) so I like having these two in tandem.
