NBA Best Bets Sunday March 31

It was a great Saturday slate, going 2-1 on Substack plays, finding an awesome live line that was a winner, and 3-0 in the player props I released for Action Network.

My official return was +2.2u. I did not count Action Props as official plays because I a did not bet them myself… Pretty obvious system I got going here 😂😂😂.

Tomorrow afternoon is another Twitter Live Stream of Check Ball. It is looking like a 4PM ET start. The topics include:

🏀 Jontay Porter Scandal
🏀 Moses Brown’s FT Attempt
🏀 Tidbits from Mazzula and Daigneault Coaching interviews
🏀 Big games from Dejounte, Wemby, Brunson and more.

🏀 NBA Best Bets Sunday March 31st 🏀

Cavs @ Nuggets Ov 211.5 (1u)
This line was priced with Jokic questionable and he is trending towards playing, being upgraded to probable. Despite early games generally being under spots, this was a clear over. The Cavaliers shoot a high volume of 3 pointers, and the Nuggets play with elite efficiency. The Nuggets pace also actually increases without Jamal Murray because he is so dynamic in the half court 2 man game. While the Nuggets will be missing Murray’s offense, it doesn’t mean they will score less volume.

Heat @ Lizards Ov 216.5 (0.75u)
Very similar write up here to the Spurs/Warriors. Fanduel was at 218 at the time, however most other books were at 217 and I felt if FD was willing to be 1.5 points above the market, I was willing to play a small over. Ultimately I made this the smallest risk play of the day because the Wizards and Heat have so many injuries and are missing a lot of shooters. The Wizkids play with so much pace, but if the efficiency is in the toilet it can still be a low scoring game.

Warriors @ Spurs Ov 226.5 (1u)
I have been using FanDuel as the retail book which seems to be the sharpest LATELY for NBA totals. This is not a permanant trend to follow, but something I am picking up on since the All Star Break. Fanduel has consistently been 1 point lower than other books before they usually catch up. Here Fanduel was 1.5 points higher at the time, at 228, and since I was able to grab an opening line on the book that prioritizes unders was already higher, I thought this was worth a play.

Timberwolves -355 ML (1u to win 0.28)
Key numbers and movement play! This line opened at 8, which is on the last of the NBA key numbers that I care about from 5-8. When it moved off of the 8 to 8.5, I started looking for ML at good value. It is now moving out to the 9, and this should be priced close to -400. This line is still available at DK right now.