NBA Best Bets Thursday December 28th
High Volume Thursday Slate
Yesterday I forwent including my normal bet summary and write ups, and only sent out podcast links for the plays. I checked later and it was the second most downloaded episode I have ever recorded!
To make it even cooler, the pod topic was games for the night, meaning that growth happened super quickly! Strategy topic content lasts much longer, but today’s episode was booming! Thank you all for tuning in and supporting my work!
The cherry on top, it was a 5-4 night, +1.45units, and hard work paid off with a bigger bankroll.
You know the drill by now… BRING ON TOMORROW! Thursday is going to be a high volume NBA slate for me.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Thursday December 28th 🏀
Jazz +8.5 (1.5u)
Recently wrote in a write up I was going to backing the Jazz regularly for a bit. They have now won 3 straight since being healthy and emerge as a clear sharp side for Thursdays games with an important key number for underdogs. Just like I like -4.5 on favorites, I like +8.5 on underdogs, because the value of the numbers in between. I think we get this to 7.5 or 7 eventually which will invite a small playback on Pels.
Spurs +4.5 (0.5u)
Spurs +155 ML (0.25u)
This is the first time I am ever backing the Wemby Spurs in a bet… no wonder I’ve had such a successful season 😂😂. But the time has come as the Spurs are a clear as day sharp side tomorrow. Majority of bets are on Portland, majority of money is on the Spurs. It is still the 4-25 Spurs, so I refuse to bet too heavy despite the strong spot.
Pacers/Bulls Over 240 (0.75u)
If you follow NBA basketball this season you probably don’t need a reason to understand Indiana Pacer overs. Pacers are 20-9 to the over, and they are some of the highest price numbers at that. PointsBet is listing a 240 while other books have 241.5. I think this sticks around 241/242, and therefore theres not a ton of value to buy it back, so I’ll stick with a standard sized bet.
Lakers/Hornets Under 229.5 (1u)
BetMGM has a 229.5, DraftKings 229, Caesars 228.5, PointsBet 228 and Fanduel 227. Lot of mixed signals, but these are both under teams, the under is juiced a few spots, and so I’ll grab the highest number in the down direction. A weird market that I can watch to pick off better numbers, but for now just 1u. Dont be surprised if I’m tweeting a larger discrepancy here. Is BetMGM gonna hand me another wild total while FD moves the other way? Please make it happen.
Nuggets -7 (0.5u)
Value of the number. This line opened 6.5, moved to 7, and now 7.5s are showing up. Since 7 is the most important NBA number, just give me it while its moving. Aaron Gordon is going to be out, the grizzlies are playing amazing, the game is trending towards the under with the spread at 7, and I am a certified grizzlies fan now. There are some factors working against me here, but the number means grab it for 0.5u, I’m not smarter than the market.
Good luck with these games! I also noticed Bulls ATS /Heat ATS /Heat-Warriors Ov/Pels-Jazz Ov to be emerging sharp spots so I will keep eyes but for now, I don’t want them.