NBA Best Bets Thursday February 22nd
We are back 🚀
I miss ball.
During the break I did a deep dive into every teams updated win totals, remaining strength of schedule, futures odds, and went through all my slips to update my stats (+65.36u 💰). I grabbed the Pacers +750 4 seed mere minutes before it moved to +600, and I am convinced this newsletter pushed that Wolves 15:1 down to 10:1 (look at the picture I sent yesterday and the current odds at DraftKings today, one team moved- and i think we moved it).
My futures portfolio has incredible “open” positions. Like all bets, futures will process with a simple Win or Loss, but you can watch the tickets gain and lose equity compared to the market as the bet remains pending and open. For example, my Warriors and Hawks win total unders have about an 80% equity stake right now. I will do a full write up and review of my futures portfolio soon, since I went through and added Coach of the Year and 6th Man of the Year portfolio bets on recent podcast episodes. Not everything is perfect though, my Joel MVPiid ticket was graded as a Loss because he missed too many games. I still have a pending Grizzlies to win the NBA title ticket 😂
OK- I am ready for the stretch run of the NBA season. I am going to beat my season record of +74u. That starts with 4 NBA Best Bets on Thursday’s board.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Thursday February 22nd 🏀
Orlando Magic +7 (-109) 1u
It should be well established that 7 is the most common outcome in NBA games, so grabbing that number as the rest of the market shows mainly 6.5s is a valuable grab. With the total dropping from 216.5 down to 214.5, it is also a nice boost to have the correlated low total being sharped towards the under. If we are expecting a low scoring game, then we can expect the Magic not to be blown out. Btw- I’m kind of very open to some +235 sprinkle here too. If you want to split up the bet for 0.75u spread, 0.25u escalator on the +235, id say thats wise.
New York Knicks +1.5 (-110) 0.75u
We get both sides of the key numbers discussion in this post. The reason to go full unit on the +7 is because the value of the number and corresponding movement. The reason to go less than 1unit on the Knicks +1.5 is because a move to +1 or through the 1 to -1 is way less valuable. 1 is the 11th most common outcome. So however you feel about the basketball angle, and Embiid being out, or it being an easy road trip to Philly for the Knicks- remember to weight bets based on number value not basketball opinions.
Hornets @ Jazz Under 231 (-109) 2u
I am a little nervous here because me and Utah Jazz unders are not friends this season. But I cannot ignore the loud sharp signals here between splits and line movement. We know Lamelo is already ruled out, we know the Hornets offense has been dreadful since trading Terry and PJ. I am kind of interesting in an escalated Hornets Un 100-110 team total when those odds get posted tomorrow. The Hornets may struggle to score and the Jazz are going more defensive without Olynyk and Fontecchio.
I originally posted it to my twitter for 0.75units, but upon further reflection and watching the other lines move around it, I played it again now for 2u. The same BetRivers line below is still available.
Lakers @ Warriors Ov 241.5 (-108) 1.25u
The lazy side of me wants to just write well hey they went to double OT last game so take the over 😂. Its a very early sharp side, I am seeing 43% bets and 72% of the money on the over, the early movement juice the over to -115 or -118 at some books, and the ability to still grab an opening line. I know Lebron is out for this game, but I expect both teams are going to play with pace and put up a lot of 3s. Warriors Team Total Ov 130 becomes a sneaky ladder candidate.
