NBA Best Bets Thursday February 8th

4 Totals, 1 Spread, 80% CLV early

The week off did me very well. Two nights of being back, I am 10/12 in beating the closing number on bets placed.

Process! Process! Process! This is how you win at sports gambling. The results also show, +1.25u through the graded wagers, with 5 more pending. Let’s break them down.

🏀 NBA Best Bets Thursday February 8th 🏀

Pacers -6 (1u)
Warriors @ Pacers Un 251 (1u)
This is a rare situation in which I am playing a favorite on the spread and the under at equivalent exposure. Generally those are inversely correlated angles, but you always need to contextualize these generalizations into the specific situation. Here we need to take into account that I am still playing under 251, an insanely high number, one that if the game lands 10 points under the total, I still have very little fear of being in a 240 game with a -6 point favorite. Thats very normal. Second, getting Pacers -6 when the board started to move to -6.5/7 is movement between the most important key number of NBA 7. If you see something moving between 6 and 7, get it and worry later. Its value. Warriors are also on the second leg of a road B2B and Haliburton no longer has a minutes restriction. Basketball angles line up as well.

Nets/Cavaliers Un 224.5 (1u)
Line opened at 224.5 with strong under splits and some books dropped the line to 223. I thought we had a very strong cap and sharp angle on not a very strong number, as there was little more room for this to go below 223. I did not expect a playback, but I also certainly did not expect to wake up later and see 225s! I am now -CLV and this went from strongest cap/weak number to straight up worst cap. I check the splits and still see very large bets on the under, despite heavy volume on the over. The line adjustment seems handle related, so I still think I may close ahead and be on the right side. Weird signals here.

Spurs @ Magic Ov 224.5 (1u)
This line opened too low. Early season numbers showing Magic to be a very strong defensive team and the Spurs to be a weak offensive team are starting to taper off and seem less extreme. We also have a recent low scoring match up between these teams. So we got too low of an open, and I knew the action would come over. This is tapping into the old Raheem Palmer trick I mention, where we evaluate the opening and closing line of the previous game beyond just the results. The previous game closed at 226.5, and this reopened at 224.5. Dont overreact to results, stay fixated on PROCESS! This came full circle beautifully.

Mavericks @ Knicks Un 232.5 (3u)
Yesterday I got a DM from a follower letting me know books had a 3 point market discrepancy between lines. If you see that, please reach out to me, because 95% of the time we will identify the correct direction and hit it hard. Here the Knicks are stock piling injuries and will be without their two offensive creators in Brunson and Randle for the first game all season. In the two contests without Brunson, the Knicks averaged only 100 points scored while Randle played 37 minutes per. The Mavericks are on the second night of a road B2B, which means maybe some of their guys sit who have been banged up. Ultimately I do expect the Mavs to suit up, because its the no travel NYC B2B between Knicks/Nets where the team likely stays at the same hotel and just takes bus rides to each game. This is very very likely a market watch and playback incoming. Thats what happens when lines are 3 (now 4) points off and we can play into it with authority!.

Before we get out of here, I always include a SHARE button on the post and of course, my Substack is completely free. If I have been a helping hand to you, the best way to say thank you is to share it with a friend!

Please consider sharing my Substack with 1-2 friends today! We wont let them down.