NBA Best Bets Thursday March 14th
5 Straight Winning Days and 5 NBA Best Bets
Bunch of plays so just jumping straight into the good stuff- buts its been a nice bounce back stretch with 5 straight winning days.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Thursday March 14th 🏀
Boston Celtics -4.5 (1u)
Suns @ Celtics Un 231 (1u)
There is a league wide trend of backing unders right now because the way the refs are blowing the whistle. Offensive players who initiate contact are getting way less leeway, free throw rates are dropping, illegal screen calls are up, and totals are rapidly dropping. Unders have cashed north of 70% since All Star Break! This was one that got posted very early and sharp books came online lower than DraftKings. I grabbed the under 231 as my first play of the day.
I later grabbed -4.5 on the Celtics side, they just beat the Suns by nearly double digits and led the entire game in Phoenix, and now we get them at home. Porzingis is out for this game, but I believe the rest will be active and the Suns are not playing nearly the cohesive basketball the Celtics are. I love grabbing the -4.5 spread because 7/5/6/8 are the four most outcomes, so if this game is close late there is a good chance late fouling can pull me to a cover.
Clippers -5.5 (0.75u)
Kawhi Leonard traveled with the team after missing the last game with back spasms and even leaving the arena. I kind of don’t expect Leonard to play, but Harden and George should be a full go. On the other side, the Bulls just played an overtime game in Indiana and now will travel home. Also Coby White took a hard fall late and got injured, while we dont know for sure- im confident will be out for this game. You guys know I hate paying juice beyond -110 on spreads, but this line was clearly going to pull out further so I grabbed it for a little less than 1unit.
Mavericks @ Thunder Un 239 (2u)
In the same vein as fading the Bulls when Coby White went down and the game went to OT, this was another line I grabbed in the middle of the Dallas’ game tonight when Luka left with a hamstring injury. I found out about an hour later, saw all the totals dropping fast and one remaining 239 on the board. I played the under expecting this to drop hard if Luka does miss. However, when Luka misses that means Kyrie becomes the lead ball handler and paces up the offense. I dont know if the shooting will be efficient enough around Kyrie to keep the Dallas offense afloat. I will definitely be playing the back and knew it had room to do so, so I played it for 2u.
Knicks @ Blazers Un 210.5 (-108, 3u)
Every single other book had this game priced at 208.5 when BetRivers was leaving up a 210.5 with only a -108 vig towards the under. Its that easy- a huge market descrepancy and on sale from the normal -110. LOVELY. This was such an easy line to grab and plan to play back so I just went full 3u instantly. It is a very low total, but had CLV room that signaled it would have value to open a middle. I dont plan on keeping much exposure tilted towards the under by tipoff.
