NBA Best Bets Thursday March 21st
10/11 Winning Days. What a run šš
Another winning night, 10 of the last 11 slates +money. Simply a ridiculous run. Big email tonight so straight into it and obviously I hope to keep it rolling.
š NBA Best Bets Thursday March 21 š
Pelicans -1 (1.5u)
Pels/Magic Un 210.5 (0.5u)
Iām all in and borderline biased on the Pels right now! However you (dont) want it, thats how the Pels will give it you. If you play small, they go Nance at the 5, Zion Ingram Herb Murphy/CJ. If you go big, point Zion, flanked my CJ/Murphy/Ingram, with JoVal in the paint too. Want to switch everything? Fine, we can meet you with Ingram/Murphy/CJ/Herb/Zion. Coach Willie Green has them communicating so clearly, when the sub patterns change, the defensive game plan also changes seamlessly. They also have the best announcer on League Pass in Antonio Daniels, so they are also the best game to tune into. It is really impressive right now. Little tip, I know sharps are on Pels here, so while I normally go small exposure on the +/-1 because its a low value number, I doubled my usual 0.75u because I know I have a sharp side.
Kings @ Wizards Under 239 (1.25u)
Once you place a bet, you still have to observe the line movement from then until tip. In fact, it becomes equally or more important to track and understand possible risk mitigation as oppose to look for more and new opportunities. I originally bet Ov 238.5 because the entire board was moving up to 239. And it did, DraftKings reached 239, and DraftKings still had a 239 when I played the reverse. It was Caesars that was first to make the move to 237.5. Then Fanduel joined suit, and then Caesars went down to 236.5. When I saw that and held an over 238.5 ticket, uh oh! I rushed to the board, found the best available number, and played it the other direction. This time I had even more information to understand this was going to move a few points, so I more than 2xd the bet size to flip my position. The additional thing to note- if you can play back the other side at ideally not the same sports book, do that. Try and avoid playing back numbers at the same book- thats why I grabbed the 239 at Bet365 instead of DraftKings.
HOU Rockets -2.5 (0.5u)
Bulls @ Rockets Ov 213 (1u)
Admittedly, i do not totally understand the correlated Rockets + Over movement. My first grab was on the over because I think Coby White has a chance of returning and being a big boost to the Bulls offense. If Coby is on track to be active, this pops up to 216+ and he said in an interview he was able to go through everything in practice and hes feeling better he was just sore and nothing ever popped so he was not nervous. Reading the tea leaves- Coby playing. BUT, the Rockets have also been playing fantastic ball despite missing Sengun. Dillon Brooks, FVV, Landale/Green provide excellent vet presence, a strong coach in Ime, and young talent blossoming in Thompson, Jalen Green, Jabari, Whitmore etc. The Rockets are also a very pesky home team.
NY Knicks ML +350 (0.5u)
I talk about memorizing the numbers ALL the time. I talk about having some of these figures become INNATE in your mind. Just like having 11 on the blackjack table with the dealer showing 6up, we know we are doubling down, 100% of the time, and it takes all of 2 seconds to draw that conclusion and act with +EV swiftnessā¦ Letās use a sportsbook version of this innate knowledge.
I know my NBA value charts. A +350 spread equates to a 9.5 spread in NBA basketball, NOT an 8.5. Here I saw the +350 price tag linked with an 8.5 and knew according to the chart, thats a price aint right snag value moment. The spread has moved out to 9.5 at Fanduel and the +350 price is there, so not value obtained like I expected, but I am still at fair market value without any -CLV, and I do think this has a chance to close around +310.
Notice how the Suns were -350 and again at-375 tonight, on a -9 spread, why did i play the ML?!? Because a -9 spread correlates with a -420ish, not no -375. So that -375 represented the best value. I see it on an instant and know what to do.
Hawks @ Suns Un 227.5 (1u)
The Suns are on the second leg of a home B2B and considering they have injury prone players who have recently gotten healthy and rolling, it should be questioned if they sit one of the core 3 guys. On the Hawks side, no Trae or Jalen Johnson, and now all the Hawks who were on the trade block are asked to step up and fill outsized roles. I expect low efficiency on the Hawks side, a possible injury to pop up on the Suns side, and some CLV where I can likely play this back the other way. This could land around 224.5.
Jazz @ Mavericks Un 238.5 (1u)
Weird photo here because the main BetRivers home page was offering the line Un 239 (-113). I knew to click in and check for the -108 because it is very common for BetRivers to set up the lines this way. The reason why I chose the -108 is, just as discussed on yesterdays pod, the 5c on the dollar is an overpay for a tick of movement in an NBA total. I think this is an under spot because of the injuries the Jazz are dealing with, and the subsequent defensive heavy rotations they have been rolling out. I do expect Lauri Markannen to be active, and this line may bounce the other way, but the pricing across the board senses this probably trends down as unders have been all season. The opening line for this game was the still currently available 238.5
