NBA Best Bets Thursday March 7th

Three Bet Thursday!

My last three days of handicapping include 10 Best Bet positions, all of them closing ahead of the market. I have opened up multiple middles, I have had correct unit exposure tied to key numbers that I value, and the net result of my bankroll is 3 straight losing days. It’s pretty annoying.

If you are familiar with my mental approach to sports betting, you know I am incredibly unemotional. I don’t care too much to watch my bets, I prefer to watch my favorite game. I know bad beats are balanced out with lucky wins. I know positioning myself correct is a long run game that has now 12 straight seasons of success.

But come onnnnn. This is perhaps my strongest stretch of process, and yet I’ve lost money for 3 straight days, and all that amazing work is actually worse than meaningless. Ugh. I’ve actually been on the wrong side of all three 20 point comebacks in the NBA this week. I turned off all 3 thinking it was a wrap only to be hit with the wtfff moment (I’m looking at you Lakers tonight 👀).

Ok, over it. No more tilting. Lets sweep tonight.

🏀 NBA Best Bets Thursday March 7th 🏀

Warriors -6.5 (1.5u)
Warriors/Bulls Ov 223.5 (1u)
The Warriors, despite one terrible game in a bad schedule road spot against the Celtics, are on a roll recently. Draymond is truly playing elite basketball, Curry is still near peak, and the role players are filling in well. Trace Jackson Davis is one of the certified steals of the draft. The dubs do have a home back to back here, but they just beat the Bucks by 35 and ended their 6 game win streak. The Warriors were able to get late rest and win easily, no injuries and highly expect them to be full go tomorrow.

I immediately grabbed the -6.5 when there were -7s starting to pop up because 7 is the most important nba number, and obtaining the 6.5 has a lot of value when you do that. I will always do these spots for 1u, taking a -6.5 moving to 7 nearly blindly (theres been a few Ive skipped this year). This one since my hoop brain agreed, and fading the Bulls has been great for me recently, I played 1.5u.

I also played the over because there are clear market signals with sharp books starting to put this at 224.5 All of the common books are at 223.5 except BetMGM (who isnt sharp in the NBA market lol- they even already have the 224.5!). I originally played for 0.75u since the league wind trend of unders, but noticing this is clearly going up, I added another quarter unit and just made it full unit play.

Pro tip: when you want to add to a position and the lines are the same at multiple books, submit the second bet at a different book. Here I did Fanduel and PB/Fantatics, both still currently at 223.5.

Nets @ Pistons Un 217.5 (1u)
Nets @ Pistons Un 217 (0.5u)
Here is another example of re popping a line twice and doing it at separate books. My first play of the evening was the under in Detroit- which I have been doing pretty much every game since the All Star Break. I have talked about it on podcasts, on my radio appearance, on my show and guest shows- but the Pistons traded all their shooters and every opening line is dropping. It is a trend I actually value. I grabbed under 217.5 at Draftkings, saw it move to 215.5 when 217 was still available at Fanduel and added more on. Now this line is universally 214.5 or 215, and yet again Pistons totals are dropping.

Am I going to sweep or am I going to close ahead of all the lines and lose again? Lets please not do that again.

BTW! I started a twitter page (@AdvantageSBP) specifically for The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast. Go follow that page! I will be doing some live streams, posting clips from my pods and other media appearances, and some other ideas that I am excited to roll out when its the right time.