NBA Best Bets Thursday November 21st
+2u Wednesday, bring on a 4 Game Thursday!
Watching the NBA last night I can tell I am actually scarred by the recent run of bad beats. I had the Rockets up 21 headed into the 4th quarter, and I was pretty sure that Rockets -5.5 ticket would somehow go against me. I had the Knicks up 17 going into the 4th quarter, and I was pretty sure that Knicks -4.5 ticket would somehow go against me. NOPE! It turns out having 15+ point leads in the NBA is a good thing that translates to covering. Overall it was a great bounce back night at +2.04units. Let’s keep it rolling.
I made a few important points on the podcast yesterday. That bad beats should happen less frequently than close wins when you are consistently generating closing line value (the most important secondary metric to forecast future gambling success). Second, that having a brief cold run is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON TO TAKE A DAY OFF. Generating +CLV tickets that translate into winning money has been long proven in the sports betting space, and I have long proven my ability to beat the market at a Steph Curry ft rate when picking off lines.
Lastly, I noted that while the principles explained above are the objective truth, I also believe in the gambling gods and a bit of karmic power being involved. Thats why I switched from a black long sleeve to a white long sleeve for todays show. It’s like I was dressing for my own funeral and handing myself bad beats! The white long sleeve is back tomorrow, and so am I at 9AM ET, breaking down a 4 game NBA Thursday slate.
Here is the link to tomorrow’s 9AM ET show in addition to the best bets I have already placed. I am also linking the podcast feeds in the buttons below.
Here are the Best Bets already placed, but let me advise do not tail my Spurs ATS pick! This bet was placed a few minutes before Wemby was ruled out, I watched the entire odds screen move from 4.5 to 5.5, grabbed the 4.5 before a key number for a full unit, I knew Wemby suffered a knee bruise 6 days ago colliding with Anthony Davis, but he finished that game! When he missed Tuesday’s game against OKC, he was not ruled out this early in advance, and it made sense to keep him out vs OKC who are relentless defensively and were playing a lot of small ball without their bigs. The Wemby inactive caught me by surprise and leaves me with 3 good tickets, 1 bad ticket. Maybe a white long sleeve positive variance will let that end up being a winner 😂
There is a unique opportunity to join the whop and get access to all my picks right now at a pretty awesome value. Because of the rash of bad beats I’ve taken this month, I am down on the month of November on whop plays. I decided to make December free for everybody if I do not end positive in the month of November. I cannot in good conscious charge for picks while they were losing, even if they were ahead of the market pregame and good caps.
If you join the Whop before the end of November, you either catch me on a blistering hot run or in the next 10 days immediately get 30 days credited to your account. The whop bills monthly on the day you sign up, so there is no incentive to wait until 11/30 to actually join. You will get one month of access + 30 free days regardless of signup date, as long as it is before 12/1.
If you have been considering joining - this is likely the best offer that will pop up this season. You can also cancel at any time. Lastly, access to the whop is not just my plays, it also comes with access to all of the key numbers data for the last 3 NBA and NFL seasons aggregated for easy use.