NBA Best Bets Thursday November 30th
Three Favorite Thursday 🏀🏀🏀
I know most people will be watching Seahawks @ Cowboys tonight, so I figured I would give some information on the game despite not having any bet positions myself.
Dallas and the Over seem to be the sharp sides of the market. The Cowboys opened at -7 briefly before a quick tick up to -8, and then steady action to move the entire market to 9, with even Circa currently sitting at 9.5. The total opened at 46 and now sits at 47.5. The spread has moved out of a teaser zone and the total has moved through 47, a key number, and thus it has lost a lot of value. You could correlate the over movement with an increased chance the cowboys can cover the 9 and just play the spread, but I’d rather skip it. Maybe there is a sneaky good prop, if you spot it, let me know.
There are 3 NBA spots I think are worth taking some action on…
Miami Heat -1.5 (1u)
I love this spot, but playing it for just 1unit because of the uncertainty around Jimmy Butler’s ankle injury. Reading the tea leaves, I think he plays and it’s worth a bet. We have early line movement from 1.5 to some 2s showing up. The splits indicate 60% of bets and 79% of the money on the Miami side, the Heat are on a 3 game skid and return home from a road trip. Jimmy has had 6 days off since his last game, and the Heat have 3 more days on the other side of this contest. We also saw Jimmy playing dominoes with Usain Bolt last night, I think he’s feeling alright (his trash talk was still in abundance lol).
Hawks -7 (1u)
A lot of basic strategies put to use here. The Hawks seem to gain CLV on nearly every opening line; in a way it is a “trend” that I actually find notable and playable. We are seeing it again tonight vs the Spurs, with 7.5s showing up at a lot of the sharper books. Next is applying that little movement to key numbers, we know 7 is the most common outcome in NBA games, so getting the 7 vs the 7.5 is a significant hook in NBA terms. The total is also ticking 2 points higher from 244.5 to 246.5, so it makes me slightly more comfortable to back a favorite to cover a big spread in an over market.
Warriors -4.5 (0.5u)
We can really call this bet the, “I’m betting against the Clippers on a road B2B when Kawhi has played 17/17 games this season.” The early sharp action screams Kawhi, or PG, or Harden (sorry I dont think Russ matters to lines anymore), dont play or at the very least get added to the questionable injury report and it gains line movement. I also love playing the -4.5 on favorites because the 4 key NBA numbers being 7/5/6/8. However, no CP3, no GP2, and I cant put any serious investment into the Warriors right now. All the signs and signals make me turn away my bias and play it for half a unit.
Good luck! Let me know what bets you like tonight…. or if you would start Jalen Hurts or Dak in Fantasy Football this week because I’m confused!