NBA Best Bets Tuesday 11/14
5 Best Bets that look like really strong handicaps!
No fluff, just the good stuff! It’s late, I’m exhausted, and Bronny needs a walk, but I just placed 5 NBA bets where the handicapping process and early movements look really strong, so I wanted to get this out!
Pacers/76ers Under 240.5 (0.5u, FD)
I put these out on my twitter earlier and mentioned all plays would be one unit, except for one and it should have been obvious! The reason to go half unit on this play was twofold, most importantly because the entire board had the same price listed and inherently that presents less value. The second is a betting an under on the 2023 PACErs can never be a confident play. But this number is too high for a game where its the second leg of a B2B between these teams with no travel. These spots tend under because of familiarity between the movement and systems. Think NBA playoffs as series goes on, total tends to drop.
Magic @ Nets Under 219 (1u)
This was a spot I almost put the smack down with Thor’s hammer on the under. Originally opened 220, dropped to 219, with 218s starting to show up. Clear as day under spot in the trends, the betting splits backed it up, the sharp books being the first to go to 218. Now we are even seeing 217.5s pop up, and I wish I had put more/even considering a repop on the 218.5 still left. The reason I hesitate to put a lot more is because Ben Simmons and Fultz are both out who are both poor shooters. Also, Simmons and Fultz both being out in a game vs one another… some things never change.
Hawks -4 (1u, FD)
These group stage tournament games have been priced out for quite a while. I knew when the line first opened it was Hawks -3 with very strong splits on their side, but it closed over the weekend and at repost, the line was Hawks -6! This obviously invited a massive buyback window on anyone who previously had a Hawks -3 ticket, and the market came heavy on the Pistons. I knew this was buyback action, and not early sharp action, because I knew how the -3 was swooped off the board. So when I saw the line go back to 4 I knew there was an extremely high degree of certainty that movement would start going back the other way/there was no way this was going hard against me. I jumped in on the Hawks, the NBA team I keep backing, for -4 in the motor city.
Lakers -4.5 (3u)
Have you seen the Grizzlies? That is all 😂😂.
I’m joking heres a little more on the cap. -4.5 is one of the best numbers you can grab for NBA favorites because of key numbers 7/5/6/8 all on your side. 5s were popping up. Lakers are home, in a tournament game which means rest on both sides and stars playing. This is also the first game since the playoff rematch, where the GrizKids would not stop talking. Don’t expect the King to forgive and forget.
*edited to add to 3u. Now 4.5 left on the board at DK while 5.5s are popping up at -115. This shows window for buyback later.
Heat @ Hornets Un 225.5
Someone needs to send Steve Clifford a strongly worded email telling him the importance of shooting more 3s. The Hornets rank dead last in 3pt Frequency (per 100 possessions), 3pt Makes per game, 3pt fg% on the season, and 2nd to last in 3pt attempts per game. Until Clifford gets the memo, play the under. The Heat also rank below average in nearly all of these categories and are without Tyler Herro. These Southeast divisional foes are familiar with one another and should be a nice under spot.