NBA Best Bets Tuesday December 19th
1 ticket in, 1 spot im waiting on
2-1 Monday meant the ridiculous winning streak ended at 16 straight, but nonetheless it was still a +1.7unit day and I am thrilled. +19.45units over the last 4 days. That is actually nonsense!!!
Here is a tip and trick on how to win 16 straight bets:
1. Get lucky and defy basic logic/odds/variance.
Yes it took a lot of skill to put myself in those strong +CLV positions, to grab the best numbers available on the board, to recognize arbitrage situations in front of me. Perhaps the strongest part of my handicapping this NBA season has been my ability to track and correctly predict injury news so well. It has (sadly) become the most important factor in beating NBA lines the last few seasons.
But mainly, winning 16 straight bets is just lucky. If I actually planned on winning THAT much, I would be parlaying everything 😂😂.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Tuesday December 19th 🏀
Celtics -5 (0.75u)
Back the Celtics or fade the Warriors? Either way works for me. This line is priced at 5.5 at DraftKings and Fanduel, the most public books, but is 5 at Caesars and some of the sharper books. If you have access to a 5, grab it. If you only have books with a 5.5, wait for it to come down to 5 but I dont think its going to 6. I am playing it for less than a unit because while I like the spot, I may be contrarian to line movement. The Celtics remember the Warriors winning a title in Boston, maybe there is some incentive to lay a smack down in Chase Center.
Memphis Grizzlies 1Q Spread/ML
You may have heard tales about Golden State Warriors 3rd Quarters… Well let me introduce and raise you Memphis First Quarters. ❤️❤️❤️
The Grizzlies are +7 right now for the game, with no first quarter spread out yet. I am waiting on that, because I expect it to be +1.5/+2 and be very playable. At +2, I’ll probably play some spread and ML. At +1.5, I’ll probably just play the ML at +odds. Most people think this is a Ja Morant return bet… thats kind of it but not really. This is a Taylor Jenkins core strategy is build an early lead with pace out the gate, and he just got his engine back.
You could play the Fanduel Combo bets, Memphis Grizzlies 1Q/Game Winner +460 and also play Memphis Grizzlies 1Q/Pelicans Game Winner +310, and its likely a very similar payout to taking a straight 1Q ML, but since its listed at one book I’ll just wait for the market to show its cards.