NBA Best Bets Tuesday December 26th
Leftovers and bad lines to take advantage of
Christmas was merry indeed! I watched sports all day, and won a f**k ton of money 😂. I hit the middle on the Mavs/Suns total, netting nearly +20u on a single game. It was the perfect exclamation point on whats been such dominant handicapping.
I want to take a day off! But to me that means finding a day where I don’t like any of the early lines and therefore don’t check in too much, spend an extra hour or two at the beach, do a double dog park day and hit the gym and sauna. That day will not be tomorrow, I hate that I love the board. Womp.
I’ll keep on saying it… BRING ON TOMORROW!
(Im realizing i keep writing that but I type these up at like 1-2am west coast time and I am most definitely talking about tonight. You get the point.)
🏀 NBA Best Bets Tuesday December 26th 🏀
Wolves/Thunder Ov 225.5 (1u)
This is a few ticks too low. Despite being two strong defensive teams, they also both play with pace and attack the rim. A quick whistle will make this an easy over. I am also grabbing an opening line number. We also have an overwhelmingly large handle towards the over here, this may move 2.5 ish points. I would play it bigger but my one concern is KAT missing the game. He was upgraded to questionable, a trend toward him being active, but he is a clear offense first player who helps with Wolves floor spacing.
Pelicans -4.5 (-113, 1u)
This is a Raheem Palmer trick. When two teams play in a very recent game, look how the line moved and closed, not the result, and compare it to the current odds for the rematch. Lets apply this technique to Pelicans-Grizzlies. When Ja Morant returned for his debut game, the Pels were the sharp side that closed between 6.5 and 7.5. It took a heroic Ja Morant led comeback effort to win at the buzzer. A few games later, it reopens at 4.5 and Pelicans open as the clear sharp side.
Jazz -2.5 (1u)
Sharp spot, clear as day. Line moving from -2.5 to -3 most places, 69% of the bets on the Jazz, 95% of the early money. Jazz are now only missing Keyonte George from their main rotation, so it is time to back them for a bit. They are healthy at the positions of size, which will give the Spurs fits who have Wemby who is thin and Collins who may not play. The Utah size between Collins/Mark/Kessler/Olynyk will prove to be too much to handle, unless the Spurs just knock a ton of 3s in this one.
Bulls/Hawks Under 235 (2u)
Bulls -1.5 (-108, 0.5u)
Trae Young probably isnt playing, market signaling. The spread opened Hawks -2 and moved to Bulls -1.5/-2 when trae got added to the injury report with a sprained shoulder. Bulls became a super sharp side. The lack of movement has yet to come to the total. At some places it dropped to 233.5, but 235 remains at BetRivers and thats off. Opening line was 235.5. I will probably play some of it back once trae is out and the line drops to 231ish. The Hawks can still play with a lot of pace under Murray. Its just worth playing into the very likely CLV.
Kings -310 ML (1u to win 0.32u)
Kings -7.5 (0.3u)
Blazers struggle to score points and keep up with opponents, which makes a matchup with the Kings a nightmare. Kings offense travels well! Thats how they were able to grab the 3 seed and picked up more or less where they left off. I split my exposure between the spread and moneyline because the road -7.5 has me missing a bunch of key numbers. Instead I played the ML and used the spread as a semi escalator.
Clippers -10.5 (-114, 0.75u)
Its a huge number but I am willing to play it as the clippers are coming off a tough loss, should be back to fully healthy, and the hornets stink. The Hornets are probably going to be down Ball and Rozier, so I just have no clue who they rely on to generate offense, especially against a strong wing defense in Kawhi/PG. This one could get ugly.