NBA Best Bets Tuesday February 27th
Pushing the chips in.
We have a big NBA Tuesday night but for the most part, the board seems very fairly priced. I found two spots where BetRivers was late to the party updating the odds. Here they are.
**as I am writing this email the numbers moved for my very large positions. I knew I was getting in at a ridiculous opportunity here. These are both very clearly sharp sides, at current numbers I am ok with plays just make them way less like standard 1units.**
🏀 NBA Best Bets Tuesday February 27th 🏀
Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls (10u)
This is completely mis priced. Since the NBA trade deadline, the Pistons got rid of Bojan Bogdonovic, Alec Burks, Joe Harris, and Kevin Knox- there primary sources of shooting and veteran presence. They are also without beef Stewart, a surprisingly good big man shooter, as he is still suspended. The Pistons have fully embraced the youth movement, playing more Ivey and Thompson combos which is needed for development but the shooting is lackluster, the efficiency dips, the paint clogs, and then totals are dropping fast. A few weeks ago I was scared how run and gun they were- things change! The Pistons are also on the second night of a road B2B, but are getting the steam in their direction on the spread. This tells me its under and total related movement, and the best grab is just the under. I really liked the number, but bet it for 1unit at first thinking it was a standard play. Then the rest of the board moved to 225.5 and Rivers left this there for hours. I absolutely slammed it. I am hoping for about 4+ points of middle room, but I am 100% buying back some of this, even if it moves back the other way and I got to eat some vig loss. Lets see where it goes.
Miami Heat -6 (6U)
Another big bet with the most simple explanation. I am picking off key numbers and playing it big because the value weight. The entire rest of the Heat/Blazers market is at -7 or -7.5, without even a -6.5 existing. BetRivers is leaving up a -6. Considering the importance of these NBA digits, it is another move the chips in moment. I do not like the -113 on a bigger position, I do not like the Heat being on the second night of a road B2B, and the 3rd road game in 4 days. This is another place where I am 100% playing back, throwing out my basketball opinion, and obtaining value in a market. Heat do get Jimmy Buckets back after the 1 game suspension and have won 8 of their last 10. Portland is without Scoot, Brogdon, and Sharpe- itll be the Ayton and Simons show against the Butler and Adebayo pairing. Maybe Tyler Herro and Jaime Jacquez want to make Portland pay after speaking ill of them during trade rumors around Dame this summer. Make them pay Miami, get me paid!
