NBA Best Bets Tuesday February 6th
Two Bet Tuesday
Guess who’s back?!?!
It was an awesome week off; I met up with old friends, saw family, and went to my
college roommates wedding. I was a groomsman in the wedding, certainly was not a Wedding Crasher, but I did crush equally to Vince Vaughn dropping the, “we lost a few good men out there.”
”On the Yankees?”
”Yup, injuries, trades, it’s so hard I just don’t want to talk about it.”
Likely to drop some wedding stories on an upcoming pod, so be sure to tune in.
🎙 Podcast Schedule This Week 🎙
- Wednesday NBA Full Slate Breakdown
- Thursday MTV Challenge Recap (few episodes to catch up on)
- Friday NBA Trade Deadline Betting Impacts
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🏀 NBA Best Bets Tuesday February 6th 🏀
OKC Thunder -2.5 (1.5u)
Thunder @ Jazz Under 243 (1u)
Two plays in one game with a similar principle in the capping. Both of these lines featured the biggest discrepancies of live lines available on the board. For the spread, I saw BetMGM at -2.5 when Caesars was already at -4. For the total, I saw Fanduel at 243 when there were 241.5s popping up. I knew there was a good amount of movement, so I checked in with the opening lines and early trends and caught the best number on the board in the direction that I wanted.
There are a few reasons to bet the spread a little harder than the total.
1. Spread movement is more valuable than total movement, simply because the outcomes are more common on game differentials than total points. There are probably 30-40 realistic spread outcomes with varying probability rates, while there are probably 60 realistic total outcomes, also with varying probability rates.
2. Backing an NBA favorite and an NBA under is generally inversely correlated. I like overs and favorites because if there are more total points scored, it is easier for the team to cover the spread. However, the -2.5 spread is low enough, and we know the 1/2 are infrequent NBA outcomes and not key numbers, that i dont read too hard into this, otherwise I would avoid placing one of the positions on these bets.
3. When I checked the betting splits, the spread showed clear money and tickets on the Thunder side. 77% bets and 93% of the money, no brainer that these lines would not last. The total had more bets on the Over at the book I could check the splits with confidence, but it was the lowest number on the board (which makes sense that over bettors would shop at that book). Either way, the entire board was trending down clearly, so I ignored the outlier splits i was reading and still bet the 243 anyways for a little less exposure than the spread.