NBA Best Bets Tuesday March 5th

Did the concept of March Madness spill over into the NBA tonight?

I went into tipoff with 4 strong bet positions, but ended up getting smacked in the mouth!!! Not fun! Getting ahead of the market, obtaining closing line value, pinning unit exposure to key numbers- all of it meaningless tonight! I’ll make my first bet of the post and say that doesn’t keep up. Despite being -4units tonight (with a late 3unit add on the Clippers beating the line movement with Giannis news), I felt really great about my bets. Onto tomorrow.

🏀 NBA Best Bets Tuesday March 5th 🏀

Pistons Heat Under 221.5 (3u)
This was a no brainer hit it hard moment when I saw the number posted. As I mentioned in a very recent post, the Pistons opening totals have been trending down nearly every single game since the trade deadline. Add in the wholistic under trend in the NBA, possibly due to a loose whistle coming out of the All Star break- and I played this with some authority expect to be able to buy it back.

Celtics -6.5 (1u)
Donovan Mitchell is confirmed out for the next 3 games for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and knowing line movement, key numbers, and watching the recent play from the Boston Celtics- i was very confident this was moving to 7. I studied the market while every sportsbook was still at -6.5 but slowly watched the vig number change. Fanduel moves to -112, Caesars moves to -115, BetMGM joins the party at -115. I snagged up the finals -110 on 6.5 Celtics- since 7 is the most important NBA Key number I would like to blindly have CLV in this area.

There is word Jaylen Brown and Porzingis are both questionable. My one concern is with the Mitchell news the Celtics opt to be more cautionary too. I would not play a number beyond 7.

Pelicans -325 ML (1u)
Pelicans -7.5 spread (0.3u)
I appeared on Boston Radio tonight to talk NBA and was asked why I am willing to play a -325 moneyline. That is juiced! At the time they did not even know I had just lost a -370 Brooklyn Nets ML 😂😂. My response was simple- if I feel the expected hit rate exceed the implied probability I pay in the odds, then it has a positive expected value and I believe it to be a good bet. The Pelicans ML offers a good example because they are on the road in Toronto, with a spread past some of the most valuable NBA numbers. The Pelicans are playing fantastic basketball lately, they are becoming a potential force for the playoffs, Willie Green is coaching so well. I will play the -325 ML for 1unit, and then roll over the expected profits into the -7.5 spread.

Knicks Hawks Un 218 (0.75u)
Nets Sixers Un 220.5 (0.75u)
Since I am betting unders with both of the New York City teams, I can get away with squeezing them into one write up. The rumors around league circles right now is that coming out of the All Star Break the refs were letting the players play through more contact, and it has favored the defense and led to about 70% of unders cashing. Normally I do not buy into these small sample size theories, but this one checks out if you watch the game and also listen to Adam Silver during the All Star Break address the league high scoring rates. There is an uptick in illegal screens being called, and more contact allowed on the drive.

Looking at these teams I see tons of star players on the injury report. Given the state of officiating, and lack of 3 point shooting weapons, I knew both totals would trend down. I did not feel super strong about either- but the line movement was worth playing into and so I did it small for 0.75u each.

As I noted in the show, I hopped on Boston Radio tonight on a show called “The Gambler with Adam Kaufman” to break down Tuesday NBA. My segment is roughly 17mins-35mins into the show. Here is the link if you are interested, or search the show wherever you listen to podcasts!