NBA Best Bets Tuesday November 28th

Moneyline day! Were taking outright winners!

Six Best Bets but really its two positions just divided into different lines. Look at this science of winning ⬇️

Atlanta Hawks +5 (-110), 0.5u
Atlanta Hawks +180 ML, 0.5u
Atlanta Hawks -4.5 (+275) 0.25u
Houston Rockets +5.5 (-113 BetRivers), 0.66u
Houston Rockets ML +180, 0.33u
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks Under 232 (1.5u)

All six best bets getting ONE long writeup! Am I lazy or just connecting the dots? Both of these teams, Hawks and Rockets, are road dogs who are the early sharp sides, with the +5/5.5 hovering around the cutoff number for less important underdog numbers (we know 7/5/6/8 are four most common outcomes, so you only cover one of them with the spread). When I find myself liking the dog at these numbers, I ladder it with the ML and take a boosted payout if they win outright. If you want to tilt your exposure differently, go for it! I would advise anything from 50-75% on the spread, and 25-50% on the ML. A nice 2/3, 1/3 split is usually how I do it.

Now lets factor in how the game total effects the two other plays. The Mavs/Rockets under is one I love. The in season tournament group stage game between an emerging defensive force in the Rockets, and a slower paced team with Luka, screams under. We also have 229.5s starting to pop up, I wish i hit this line harder! The under is correlated with backing an underdog, less scoring means its’ easier to cover a 5 or pull out a win, and strategically a brewing under seems to indicate a Rockets style game.

For the Cavs/Hawks, the total is ticking up from 235 to 237, and instead of playing the total at a -110, I’ll just play an alt spread and make my underdog hawks the -4.5 favorite, before the 4 key numbers, and take a nice boosted +275 payout. Overs and favorites are correlated, so let’s push our team to a favorite.

Do me a favor and share my Substack with a friend who enjoys sports gambling!