NBA Finals Game 1
Best Bets, Live Looks & Upcoming Content Schedule
The NBA Finals are here and tip off tonight! We are down to two teams with one knockout punch remaining before crowning a champion.
Do the Celtics finally get it done after appearing in the conference finals for 6 straight seasons? Do the Mavericks start the high ceiling conversations around Luka’s legacy with another playoff series upset? I am hyped and ready to get it going after short conference finals series led to an unintended week off.
However… I kinda think that timing perfect! It was nice to take a few days away. It created a window for high level basketball breakdowns of what we may see, and the beginning of some of the offseason conversations that would have taken focus away from the big stage. The perfect example is the Lakers coaching search, as all the JJ Reddick news heated up this week but will be on pause during the finals as he will be calling the games as a commentator.
Ultimately I think this is a clear Celtics series, a sharp Celtics market, valuable numbers, a game 1 situation I have a loaded card and may consider some live playbacks. I’ll break it all down.
🏀 NBA Finals Series Best Bets 🏀
Boston Celtics -130 (1.95u to win 1.5u)
Jayson Tatum MVP -115 (2.5u risked)
Luka Doncic MVP +210 (1.5u risked)
Tatum Series Most Rebounds (110, 0.25u)
🏀 Game 1 Finals Best Bets 🏀
Boston Celtics -5.5 (3u)
Over 212 (1u)
Kristaps Porzingis Ov 1.5 3PM (-135, 0.5u)
Al Horford Ov 1.5 3PM (+114, 0.25u)
Overexposed and Live Betting Looks:
It is very rare for me to go into a game with more than 3units of exposure without anything played back. Right now, as you can see above, I have 4.75u of exposure in one direction with nothing on the flip side. I have +CLV on all my meatier tickets, very valuable numbers, great market direction, clearly on the sharp side, and overall feel like I am in a very very strong position. BUT- despite strong positions, with almost 5u on the table, there is also moderately high risk. I also have 2u Celtics series not played back, and if the Cs lose game 1, those get dicier too.
I know I will be looking in one direction for a Live Playback on Mavericks +points, likely more than 8. In the first half if I get the chance to grab that, I will for 1-1.5units. In the second half, middle opps can have shorter windows at the same value and thus I may go 1.5-2units.
On the total, I will look at halftime and consider an under for 0.5units if its within 4-5 points. Otherwise, if its way ahead or at all behind, I’ll let it ride. This is 1u not 3, so less urgency to play something back.
My decision to already play Luka Doncic MVP +210 was mere risk mitigation. I would get cute, only play tatum now, aim for a G1 win, and get Luka at a much better number. While it would increase the ROI on the overall position, I initiated it now because I have plenty of Celtics Exposure, and if the Mavs win, that Luka +210 is long gone, and acts as a nice buffer to lose less without a series hedge.
I also appeared on an episode of BUCKETS where we discussed how to bet each team, obviously I was on the “How To Bet the Celtics” side of the convo!
Upcoming Content Schedule:
1. NBA Finals Betting Breakdown on Advantage, and my appearance on BUCKETS, are both linked above in this email.
2. Game 1 Reactions + Game 2 Best Bets podcast on Friday with Mike Levy
3. Changes Coming to my Content Podcast Saturday!***
(nothing is changing until after the season, sorry for the slight delay in getting this pod out I have had a friend in town during the no NBA week and just took some time off)
4. Game 2 Reactions + Game 3 Best Bets Monday or Tuesday next week