NBA Playoff Round 2 Preview
Matchup Data For Every Series + Podcast Breakdown
Round 1 of the NBA playoffs ends tomorrow. I don’t currently have, nor do I foresee any bets coming in for GSW @ HOU Game 7, and thus I very likely end round 1 betting at +3.32units. Good - not great.
The place I messed up was not BLINDLY playing into the First Round Favorite system I was talking about heading into the playoffs. A 1 or 2 seed, in the first round, as a favorite, closing -4 or greater had a 62% hit rate and 19% ROI going back to 2003. I played it some, but not enough.
The FRF system goes 10-5, 66% and 30% ROI if blindly tailed. I even found myself playing what emerged as the “sharp side” getting good numbers going against the system. It was a choice between two profitable angles, focus on gaining CLV even it if meant fading an FRF System play, or playing FRF and foregoing some obvious CLV.
I chose CLV, as I am hardwired to do, and ended +3.32u. If the system was blindly tailed and played for 1unit -110 at each close, the result would have been +4.5u in Round 1. Good not great…. (season 3 episode 17).
Round 2 is here! Pacers @ Cavaliers will begin BEFORE the Game 7 Rockets/Warriors clash, so here is matchup data for all the matchups, along with a link to the live show breakdown that I did Saturday night when the Clippers/Nuggets game ended. I included breakdowns for both Timberwolves @ Rockets, or Warriors @ Timberwolves so you can be prepared regardless of the result.
* Matchup Data provided by Ian Toria.
(The show is already recorded, it was a night stream, click the button to watch the show)
Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Quick Preview:
Reg Season: Pacers 3, Cavs 1 (Cavs took Gm 2).
Throw out all reg season here, Hali injured first half of game 1, misses second game, Cavs bench guys game 3 and 4 in the last week of regular season with 1 seed clinched.
Matchup angle for Cavs:
- Offensive Rebs = 2nd chance Pts = Paint Pts
- 3pt Offense / #1 ranked Offense
- Bench Pts = Ty Jerome and D. Hunter
- Donovan Mitchell looks very well rested
Matchup angle for Pacers
- Pace = Fastbreak Pts
- Siakam has to dominate in single big lineups
- Very capable 3pt Defense (held Cavs to 26% in Game 1)
Game 1 Whop Bets: Cavs -7.5 (-110, 0.4u). Cavs -286 ML (0.4u). Cavs/Pacers Over 226.5 (1u)
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Quick Preview:
Reg Season: BOS swept 4-0 straight up
- ATS Celtics go 3-0-1. A Brunson meaningless 3 pushed the closing line in the last one
- NYK only led by 1pt total across first 3 games
- BOS averaged 127 points vs NYK in first 3
Matchup angle for Celtics
- BOS shot 16 more 3pt attempts than NYK on average (43.4%)
- NYK fouls too much = more FTAs
- KAT cannot defend Porzingis PnR w/ Tatum+ Brunson will be targeted relentlessly
Matchup angle for Knicks
- Offensive Rebs = 2nd Chance Pts = Paint Pts
- Fastbreak Pts, Celtics struggle against teams w tempo, not totally a Knicks strength but likely becomes an emphasis.
- Mitch Robinson should see more mins for prop angles. Celtics force him to drop and shoot more 3s in response. Knicks hope Celtics have poor shooting.
Game 1 Whop Bets: Under 218.5 (1u) + Under 217.5 (2u) Middled with Over 214 (2u)
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Quick Preview:
- Reg Season: tied 2-2 straight up and 2-2 ATS. Kind of worth throwing these out too. Game 2 no Aaron Gordon or Jamal Murray (Den still wins). Game 3 Gordon gets hurt mid game. Game 4 Jalen Williams gets hurt mid game.
Matchup angle for Nuggets
- 2nd Chance Pts
- Rebound battle by committee, especially because MPJ shoulder is banged up
- Westbrook: Less is more? -13 plus/minus on average vs OKC. Hopefully other lineups work to play him less, Thunder likely rush Westbrook into bad decisions.
Matchup angle for Thunder
- Fastbreak pts = Paint pts
- Team 3pt def: 3rd in LEAST makes, 8th in LEAST attempts, 2nd in LEAST %
- Bench Pts and depth advantage
- coaching advantage
** DEN notorious for losing Q1, start really slow, OKC was an elite 1Q team and often a 1Q sharp side play. Look to fade Den 1H because of Jokic 2nd quarter substitution pattern.
Game 1 Whop Bet: OKC -8.5 (0.75u), Under 225.5 (2.5u) + Middled with Over 222 (2u)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets Quick Preview:
- Reg Season: 2-2 straight up, 2-2 ATS
- All games went OVER at close
- Jabari Smith is crucial for HOU: +15 plus/minus in 3 games vs MIN. avg vs MIN: 15pts/7rebs/1.3blks/3 threes
Matchup angle for Rockets
- Slight edge for HOU in rebounding
- Youth and athleticism across the board forcing turnovers
- Elite home court defense
- Which version of Jalen Green are we getting?
Matchup angle for Wolves
- Fastbreak points
- 2nd chance pts = Paint pts
- Better 3pt offense
- Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels scoring
*No Game 1 Prices yet
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Quick Recap:
Reg Season: No games since Butler joined GSW, hard to read much into any data sets without that. Warriors won 3-1, the split was a back to back spot both games @ Warriors in Chase Center.
Matchup angle for Warriors
- Better 3pt offense: 6 more atts/gm, 3 more made threes/gm. More volume + higher efficiency.
- GSW gets roughly 30pts from Steph per game (avg vs MIN: 29ppg, 6 threes/gm)
- Draymond has to keep his cool, too important to sit down vs the bigs dominating Lakers for Minnesota.
Matchup angle for Wolves
- Wolves will feast on the glass
- Need Gobert to be impactful on both ends.
- Fastbreak points
- Paint pts fueled by ANT
- MIN draws more fouls = more FTs
*No Game 1 Prices yet
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ONE MORE TIME HERE IS THE YOUTUBE SHOW BREAKING DOWN ALL ROUND 2 PLAYOFF SERIES WITH SPECIFIC DIVE INTO THE ODDS AND PRICES FOR GAME 1s.
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