NFL 23-24 Futures Portfolio
A brief criteria for NFL Futures & a bunch of best bets!
NFL Futures Portfolio, 2023-2024 Season.
Welcome to NFL 23-24! I’m freaking excited. At the start of a fresh year, preseason futures is obviously the first place to start. Let’s dive in.
When I am building out an NFL Futures Portfolio, and searching for which specific NFL Futures bets I am going to submit into pending wagers, I am looking for a few specific criteria in my handicapping process. These include a) long odds b) a weak division and c) a team signaling through roster moves they want to remain competitive.
The reason for targeting teams with long odds is very simple. The NFL has significantly more parity year to year than the other sport I actively handicap in the NBA. In professional football, 47% of the playoff teams are expected to be different from those last year. A damn near 50% turnover rate from year to year as to which teams we find in the dance! In the NBA, rest assured we will have 6+ teams in each conference remain in the playoffs in consecutive years, making the retention rate north of 75% and thus, the turnover rate to be below 25%. Therefore, in comparing NFL vs NBA, targeting teams with long odds has a much better chance to come to fruition.
The second piece of criteria is a weak division. This is because of the way the NFL regular season schedule is structured, and how the subsequent playoff bracket reflects the importance of winning your division. There is a clear incentive to take a divisional focus to NFL team futures. Each team will play 17 games this season, 6 of which are against your own division. Over 35% of a teams games (for reference, NBA teams play in division 19% of games). This makes the advantage stronger teams have over weaker divisions hold very firm, because they will have 6 easier games, while their opponents have clearly harder ones. Furthermore, when playing games outside the division, teams have the same schedule just in differing orders, so you know when comparing teams of the same division, the strength of schedule and matchup component is taken out of the equation. Lastly, when playoff time comes around, winning the division guarantees a team a home playoff game, if not also a bye week. This will be important for future middling/market reading for possible hedge situations.
Lastly, I am always aware of how a team is structuring their salary cap. The NFL salary cap can be tricky, but one thing to commonly be aware of, the largest indicator in the CBA minefield, is how much “dead cap space” a team has going into the season. Some teams structure their contracts with a large signing bonus and a small upfront Average Annual Value, which then rapidly increases later in the deal. This impacts the “cap hold” certain players carry on the balance sheet in different seasons, being lesser in the front year, and larger as the deal goes on. What often happens is the players get cut, but their cap hold still exists on the balance sheet. This is called, Dead Cap Space. I much prefer to invest in teams that are structuring their cap to win now and pay for it later, and i prefer to fade teams that enter seasons with large amounts of dead cap space. This year, this is evident with the Saints still being in win now mode, and the Buccaneers taking one year to absorb all the cap trauma of the past few seasons. It’s no wonder why I’m targeting that NFC South division quite a bit.
Below are the bets that met my criteria and are currently pending wagers in my portfolio.
Tennessee Titans:
+7000 Super Bowl Winner, 0.5 unit.
+360 Division Winner, 0.5 unit
The Titans have an elite game management coach in Mike Vrabel. He keeps games close and always has a very clear game plan that limits his teams mistakes and takes away the teams biggest threats. He has a game wrecker on the defensive line, a cornerstone to creating a consistent defense. There is also an organizational clear commitment to remain competitive. They fired their GM and the owner was outspoken to wanting to win. They were rumored to be trading up for a QB, only to let it slide before grabbing one in the second round, and have made it clear Tannehill is starting this season. Lastly, they brought in DHop, kept Derrick Henry despite his price tag, and have 2 developing young talents in Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo. Oh, the division is the texans, colts and jaguars. The jaguars are the new hot car… perhaps a jaguar? But the Titans should hold this close, and +360 is nuts, and the subsequent 70/1 with a possible home field playoff game, sign me up.
Minnesota Vikings:
+4000 Super Bowl Winner, 0.5unit.
This is a rare moment when a bet has gained positive CLV so far, but I’m less a fan of it than my initial position. I took this bet on February 13th, 2023, shortly after the chiefs SB. I was forecasting Rodgers to leave the division, which came true and boosted the odds, but I was not expecting the Vikings offseason to resemble a team that is not going all in to compete, but rather floating in wait and see mode. They cut Dalvin Cook for cap savings and let Theilen walk. Their defense seems even worse on paper. Yet they still have Kirk/Jefferson in a pretty weak division, they still won 12 games last season, they still have a creative head coach. At the current 35:1, I do not recommend still taking this bet. At my 40:1, I am hopeful they start well and make a run at it, but I fear a bad start could result in a bit of a tank as they have no commitment to Kirk Cousins beyond this year, the coach never fully endorses him, and there are some blue chipper QBs coming into the NFL in the 2024 Draft.
New Orleans Saints:
+3500 Super Bowl Winner, 0.5u.
+125 Division Winner, 1u
+106 Ov 9.5 Wins, 1u
+114 To make the Playoffs, 1u
These odds have shifted against me slightly, because of the sharp action that has come in on the falcons, however I still really like the Saints angle this season. They brought in veteran QB in Carr, Kamara suspension likely shorter than expected, skill position talent very clear, strong defense with defensive head coach. Their cap situation indicates they want to win this year, and the rebuild will start next season or possibly one more year kicking the can down the road if things go well this year. Some other things I love are #1 easiest schedule ranked against projected 23-24 win totals, positive rest advantage, being in division with Buccaneers, Panthers, and Falcons.
Atlanta Falcons:
+115 Over 8.5 Wins (1u)
+250 Division (1.5u)
+116 Yes to make the Playoffs (1u)
Clear market sharp action on the falcons. These bets came in secondary to the saints. I normally wouldn’t preseason hit 2 teams in the same division, but I feel totally ok with doing it here. Considering the Falcons and Saints come into the season with #1 and #2 easiest schedules, both with positive rest advantages, and what should be a pretty bad division around them. It feels very similar to a NFC East last year, where preseason Eagles and cowboys took a lot of action and both made the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks:
+210 Division Winner (1u)
Sharp action in this division came in split between rams and Seahawks. Maybe it was a fade the 49ers situation, which makes a lot of sense because they have a new defensive coordinator, and a quarterback who’s played 7 career games returning from elbow surgery. The 49ers are still the clear favorite in the division at -165, which presents opportunity elsewhere. One thing I love in football is continuity, and situations that have proven to be winning. Well that exists in Seattle, a proven winning team under Pete Carrol who holds one of the longest tenures of any NFL head coach, and the offensive combination of Shane Waldron with Geno Smith, an offensive coordinator and quarterback who were both there even when Russell Wilson was the Seahawks starter. Keep the system going, the weapons are relatively the same, the coaches are the same, and the results should be too.
Green Bay Packers:
Packers to Win Division +350 (1u)
Packers Ov 7.5 Wins +100 (1u)
Lukas Van Ness DROY +1500 (0.5u)
The Packers are also a darling team of the football insiders this offseason, surprisingly so! Part of the reason I dont love my Vikings position despite being +CLV is because I have more confidence in the Packers than most. The system remains the same, a backup QB getting rave reviews in the offseason by coaches and teammates alike is taking over a system hes practiced in and studied under one of the greats for 2 years is a great situation. The skill players are elite, and the defense has the chops to be tops in the league, they dominated the end of last season and then drafted Van Ness who has a chance to be another elite packers lifer linebacker.
Cincinatti Bengals:
Bengals Un 11.5 Wins -129 (0.5u)
Bengals Un 10.5 Wins +100 (0.5u)
Cleveland Browns to Win AFC North +425 (0.5u)
Im using two teams in the same writeup because the time I placed the bet and the reasoning for the bet was in sync. Sadly, we heard Burrow went down with a non contact calf injury during practice, everyone saw the video, but what I saw was books starting to lock the odds. I grabbed a few different angles to a potential Burrow injury. I never ever root for injury, but I will place a bet after they happen and try and grab value. Draftkings had it at 10.5 with even odds, Pointsbet was 11.5 but slightly juiced, while FD and Caesars locked 11.5. So I grabbed a half unit on both, and also grabbed some Browns Divisional odds. I’m not buying the ravens or steelers this year, both will be good, but I’m not interested in playing them from a futures. So Browns was the other team I pinned as being very good on paper, elite defensively, great coach, and potentially undervalued by the market after a down year with all the Watson drama. While we have reports that Burrow is ok, we have also obtained some serious CLV on all of these bets. That feels like the best of both worlds and a win win.
Los Angeles Chargers +310 Division Winner
Los Angeles Chargers +1500 1st Seed AFC
The Chargers finished last season 10-7 and grabbing their first playoff birth under this core regime despite dealing with endless injuries, including Herbert playing hurt since week 2, Keenan Allen & Mike Williams both also missing a handful of games. This team still had success despite poor injury luck to its biggest pieces. They also brought in Kellen Moore to be the offensive coordinator; the combination of healthy weapons and a system more designed to push the ball downfield, the chargers upside this season is immense. Also their head coach, Brandon Staley, is a defensive minded head coach who sets up a system to limit big plays against. Without going into too many specifics, his approach often feels “new” for his players, so now going into year 3, his defense has likely mastered the methodology and may be a force with big names on all three levels. This is also selling the Chiefs, who are the heavy favorite because of Mahomes/Kelce/Reid, but still havent locked in Chris Jones and the weapons are even worse than last year. The Chargers play this team really well, so if they split games vs KC, this may be LA’s division to take. The upside of the strength of the other AFC divisions makes me think the winner of this division has a strong shot at the overall #1 seed and worth taking the 15:1 as a further escalator to the existing +310.
Season Long Player Props:
Russell Wilson Under 3725.5 Yards (-115 CZ) 1.5u
Aaron Rodgers Under 3950.5 Yards (-110 DK) 1u
Daniel Jones Under 17.5 Passing Tds (+100 DK) 0.5u
Only 9 of 32 Starting Quarterbacks played 17 games last season, so I went hunting for market discrepancies on season long quarterback unders. For Russell, we have more troubling videos emerging, a new coach with complete autonomy, and the richest owner to just bag the contract and move on. For Rodgers, this was the biggest market difference, with most sites posting his line around 3800, so i found a 3950 and nabbed the under. The Jets are going to be so good on defense, with elite run options, Rodgers doesnt have to stuff the stat sheet and that wont be his prerogative. For DJ, hes a 6 back running in a running system without weapons. His risk of injury feels significantly higher than most because of his usage and shoulder first absorption of hits. Most other sites were at 16.5 with juice to the under, so i grabbed the 17.5 at no vig.
NFL Awards Races
Josh Allen MVP, +800 (1u)
Last season we entered the year with Mahomes as the MVP lead candidate at +400. This year it starts with Pat at +700, followed by Josh/Burrow/Hurts shortly after. Although the NFL has a lot of parity in team standings as discussed earlier, it does not hold true for the awards races. 15 of the last 16 NFL MVPs have been quarterbacks, and most of them come from the top of the crop each year. This year, give me Josh Allen. The Bills had so much off field happen last season between a storm which caused a mid week rescheduled neutral site game, a lot of injuries (Von/Poyer/Hyde), the Damar Hamlin situation, and Josh’s own elbow injury mid season he played through. I expect smoother sailing, and this elite team to still dominate. Give me Josh for MVP. This line is available for +900 at BetRivers.
Myles Garret DPOY (+700, 0.5u)
Chase Young DPOY (+5000, 0.25u)
In the modern NFL, the best way to stop an elite quarterback is with pressure! This starts at the front 4, in the trenches, with a game wrecker who has both elite speed and strength. Theres quite a few in the league who fit this mold now, both Bosas, TJ Watt, Parsons, Donald still. Small bets and a portfolio approach because the field feels bigger of guys I like. I took guys who, if their team succeeds, these defensive anchors may be the biggest story that emerges. Chris Jones is another clear option. He is 30/1 currently, he tweeted out that he wants to win the award, and he plays opening night Thursday week 1 home against the lions, so if he comes out with a big game, we may see a big odds shift.
Bryce Young OROY (+450, 1u)
Anthony Richardson OROY (+900 0.25u)
CJ Stroud OROY (+900, 0.25u)
I chose to build out a Rookie of the Year portfolio around the 3 quarterbacks who were drafted in the top 4 picks. Award races typically screw quarterback. Last year was moot because there were zero Week 1 rookie starting QBs. This year there are clearly 3, with very strong preseason buzz coming out about Bryce Young, thus the largest investment on the #1 pick. Not only do I prefer to have Quarterbacks in these awards races, I am also a bit fading Bijan who is the odds on favorite, because although I love the falcons this year and love Bijan, he joins a stable of RBs in such a run heavy offense that everyone is going to get a handful of touches and I’m not sure he dominates the volume like everyone expects.
Odell Beckham Jr NFL Comeback Player of the Year (+5000, 0.25u FD)
Foster Moreau NFL Comeback Player of the Year (+5000, 0.25u FD)
I’m taking a very small investment in the Comeback Player of the Year odds, an award I normally have zero exposure in, because I feel the favorite is drastically mispriced. The odds on favorite, as it obviously should be, is Damar Hamlin. He is a -300, which correlates to a preseason 75% implied probability that he will win this single person season long award. Thats crazy! While i do think he is the most probable candidate, I can’t help but think that he was mainly starting and getting so much playing time because of the injuries to other teammates who re enter this season healthy (Hyde and Poyer). I’m not convinced that Hamlin is going to still see the field regularly. Maybe he doesn’t need to play often to win the award, perhaps just being out there is significant enough.
However, there are two other names that peak my interest. Does Odell Beckham Jr finally gives Lamar Jackson the true #1 WR threat he’s always been needing? Do they click and put some magic together? Reports surrounding OBJ’s injury suggest hes actually healthier now than after the first ACL tear, because the initial surgery wasnt done well and he never felt right. By re-tearing the ACL, he had a new surgeon which went very well, and his knee is stronger than before. On 50:1 odds, it’s worth a shot on a celebrity player returning from a full season missed in a narrative driven award.
The other is Foster Moreau. This offseason he was diagnosed with leukemia, but he has already entered remission! In fact, the saints gave him a pretty lucrative contract, and theres a surpassingly larger than expected history of NFL players overcoming cancer and getting back into successful playing careers. Moreau is going to be the lead tight end for the saints. He rejoins his QB in Carr in a new city, so they should have a reliable early season rapport. The saints should be good, and Moreau may crazy outperform preseason expectations.
*Disclaimer: I started this Substack after some of these bets were placed, so some of the odds may be slightly different today! Feel free to reach out to me with current odds and I can let you know my thoughts. As of now, this post contains my full NFL futures portfolio and I will update if there are any additions.