NFL Best Bets Week 11 & NBA Sunday November 19th

Believe it or not, this is the TRUE 50% mark of the NFL season. With 18 regular season and 4 playoff weeks, for us bettors who approach NFL in weekly slates, we have made it half way. To me it feels like we should be 75% done, but more games means more opportunity, so I’ll take it.

Here are the Week 11 NFL positions:

Denver Broncos -2.5 (-110, 1.5u)
Early on Saturday I started to notice all of the Broncos -2.5s dry up and change to -3, despite seeing a majority of bet tickets on the road Vikings. This is some reverse line movement around, my favorite indicator, around the most important key NFL number. I grabbed the -2.5 with no feelings about either team, because situationally it screams value to be obtained. Now the whole board is at 3 and I can figure out let it ride or play some of it back, I’m leaning letting it all ride.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 (2u) AND Tennessee Titans +7 (3.5u)
My original bet position was on the Jaguars -6, knowing I would gain CLV around a key number, and betting into the Billy Walters concept of competitive teams that get blown out are strong backs the following week. It’s a general concept that losing by 20 is a 2 point bonus, losing by 30 is a 3 point bonus. So I grabbed the Jags… until later in the week Lawrence pops up on the injury report and it seems the knee is bothering him more than we are being let on. I also know how strong the underdog Titans are, and in a divisional game that should remain competitive. I repositioned myself to back the Titans +7 as late money started to come in. I value late money because the limits are a lot higher, so it was either strong buybacks or new sharps entering the market with bigger money on the best number to come. I’ll be in the strong buyback category.

Cardinals @ Texans Ov 48 (1u)
I am sad not to be playing the ov 47.5 for 2x this exposure, because the importance of the 48 in NFL totals. We know 41 is the most important number, so 48 is a touchdown more, and relatively significant because of that. These offenses are moving! It is a clear sharp side, and it is yet to move through the key number despite 48.5s being on the board. Sign me up to play into the Stroud/Murray angle of surprisingly uplifting QBs right now.

Are you football only on Sundays or can you fit in some NBA too? I’m an NBA junkie, so here are my two NBA plays.

Raptors -5.5 (1.5u)
This is more of a fade the Pistons than it is back the Raptors. The Pistons lineups are a mess right now. No Duren to protect the paint, and no shooters to space the offense. It’s truly a disaster, and one I don’t expect Monty Williams to figure out quickly, as hes notoriously slow and almost unwilling to adjust. The line is out to 7.5 now so I do not recommend currently playing the Raptors at that price, I will almost certainly be playing back the Pistons for a small half unit at some point before it closes, but when you miss the movement through key numbers I am ok with playing a juiced ML for the same exposure, and just taking home less return. 1u on the Raptors ML would be my recommended approach if you have no bets currently.

Pacers -4 (3u)
I doubled my exposure here compared to Raptors for a few reasons. This is me backing the Pacers just as much as it is me fading the Magic. The Magic travel schedule has been tough, road win in Brooklyn, two road wins in Chicago, now going to Indy where a long road trip meets a team that plays with relentless pace. I also love backing the pacers who play so fast and when they are the sharp team, the number on the spread is actually not super concerning because they score so fast and so much, its usually nearly a double digit outcome where the spread wont be priced there. But the spread is priced relative to the most important NBA numbers. I am getting the favorite below the four most common outcomes of 7/5/6/8. This also invites some buyback on Magic depending on where the number closes.

GOOD LUCK TODAY! I feel I am in very strong positions for a great day! Let me know your favorite bet, any others you took, or just what food you are looking forward to eating!

PS: Content schedule may be a little changed next week for Thanksgiving, but I’ll make sure to send out notices on the specifics.