NFL Draft + Game 3 Best Bets Summarized

Yesterday’s email title was Can the Heat Catch Fire in which I quickly answered no… WELP! Theres a bit of egg on my face because the Miami Heat were scorching hot! The most made threes in team history, on an over 50% clip! That was the definition of a shooting variance game.

I had 2.5u on the Celtics ML and it definitely stinks to lose a position where the implied probability is so high going into the contest. But the reason why I do that is because it has been profitable for me- pretty simple! This season I am now +3.6u on ML plays in 22 bets. Thats a really solid ROI rate. I choose to play 1-2unit juiced MLs favorites when the spread number has moved past my key numbers range. I choose to play 0.5u ML escalators when I am riding an underdog spread and tack on the ML if it is before my key number threshold. I took an L cuz a team got hot… moving on!

I have family in town for the rest of this week/weekend, so you may hear less from me! Here is a complete summary of all bets pending between now and Saturday.

Thursday is the NFL Draft! I have posted a podcast breakdown and given out a few picks, but there is still time listen and possibly take some action! Here is the pod link and my best bets so far!

🏈 NFL Draft 2024 Best Bets 🏈
Caleb Williams -360 1st Pick (5.25u on Nov 11th)
Drake Maye 1st Pick/1st QB Selected +550/+500 (0.5u each on Sept 5th)
Jayden Daniels #2 Pick (-300, 3u to win 1- April 17th)
JJ McCarthy 4 Or Later Portfolio (2u to win 0.4u- April 22nd)

I also hopped on an episode of BUCKETS, Action Networks NBA Podcast with Matt Moore (@HPBasketball). We discussed the Thursday slate of games. Here are all my pending NBA Best Bets on Game 3s.

🏀 NBA Game 3 Best Bets 🏀
CLE @ ORL Un 200.5 (0.75u)
PHI -3 (1u)
IND -4/-4.5 (1.5u)
BOS @ MIA Un 205.5 (0.5u)
DAL -4.5

If. I add more bets, I will send out another post!