NFL Futures 2024-25 (Part 1)
Likely just the first batch
No fluff, just a ton of good stuff.
Every single NFL team starts their training camp this week. NFL Football is around the corner. Let’s fucking go. Here are the first batch of NFL Futures I have already bet.
Some of the numbers have moved since I bet them. The intention of my cap is to beat the consensus market and get numbers that are no longer offered. For first access to all of my picks, join the WHOP Chat linked below. You can receive a text notification instantly when I bet! Reach out to me for best promo codes, there are ways to reduce the price!
NFL Futures 2024-2025, Part 1:
Caleb Williams NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (+250, BetRivers 1u)
I’m a bit of a believer that if you want the favorite in a futures market, you want to bet best market number immediately at open. This has proven true for this Caleb ticket, but also Wemby ROY, Luka & Jokic MVP, Team USA Gold Medal… even down to WNBA 3pt Contest Kayla McBride. The twofold logic is pretty simple: 1) Betting it earlier gets you better odds because money is tied up for longer. 2) If you line shop for best odds on the candidate most people probably want is going to cause handle to come in and the number to move. So on principle, if you know you want to attack a favorite in a market (like I did here), be ready for it at open.
The reason why I grabbed Caleb was pretty simple. When the Bears traded Justin Fields for a bag of Doritos (after playing the media game they had a first round pick and multiple seconds being offered, LOL), it was clear Caleb was the Bears Day 1 Starter. His opportunity and leash was guaranteed. They also brought in weapons of Keenan Allen and Deandre Swift to add onto DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, the skill position players in Chicago are real deal. The Bears win total came out at 8.5 juiced to the over, which means they are likely a north of .500 team with a relatively easy schedule. Finally, the Bears have never had a 4000 yard passer and Caleb’s Pass Yards prop is 3500 (-125 to the Over). If Caleb inches close to 4k, brings the bears to a winning record, and is a 17 game starter, he wins this award handily. Thats not asking for much, its simply market expectations, and I think he can exceed.
DeShaun Watson Ov 17.5 Passing TDs (-112 BetRivers, 1u)
Feels gross to bet on a prop relative to DeShaun Watson success, but this is merely a health bet. Watson has the most guaranteed money in NFL history, which continues to extend multiple seasons into the future. He is the Browns starter just as clearly and with little competition as Caleb Williams is the Bears starter. The Browns did not bring back Flacco, they did give Jerry Jeudy a sizable gaurantee, and are returning star RB Nick Chubb off a brutal knee injury. Look for the strong showing of Njoku and Cooper to continue, and if Watson stays healthy behind a very good offensive line, hes likely throwing 20 TDs.
Will Levis Under 3500.5 Passing Yards (-112, BetRivers, 0.5u)
I love this line, already gained 100 yards of CLV, but only bet it for 0.5 because objectively I feel like more of an asshole betting a Levis under as I do a Watson over. The Titans O Line ranks one of the worst in the league, and the team lost Derrick Henry. There is likely less first downs in Tennessee, a less stacked box, a stronger reliance on big plays, and heres the kicker… Levis just took so many monster hits last year and bounced up every time. He’s got to learn not to take those hits because he will not last. 3500 means he plays about at least 15 games, which I’m not optimistic about.
Eagles NFC East Winner (+105, BetMGM 1u)
Early bird gets the worm, and there was rumors swirling in sharp community that Dak Prescott was dealing with an offseason injury and receiving MRIs. A few days later, Schefty reports Dak is in a walking boot but its no big deal… Yeah- I’d also say my injury causing me to get an MRI and being in a walking boot is no big deal when I’m up for a contract extension too. You got another 200 million for me? My foot is fine.
There was already sharp action on the Cowboys under win total when this news came in, so the fallout came to the Eagles division. I grabbed the +money remaining at BetMGM, I support this at anything +money but would skip it if you are paying juice for a division winning future.
*people in the Whop got the play, but if they read this are now finding out that it was leaking Dak related injury news 😂
Russell Wilson Starting QB Week 1 (-750 DraftKings)
My favorite NFL Future in a long time. I fucking love this bet. I am adding 1unit every few weeks as long as it lasts, I have 4units on it now. For a full detailed explanation, see this previous Substack Post ( https://t.co/ZDgj0W8taU )
Aaron Rodgers Under 3750 Passing Yards (-115, BetMGM 1unit)
I am a big proponent of QB unders. After the stats of blind betting unders the last few years, it feels like the skill position props are priced out a bit. There are even a few overs I am considering but have not bet yet (Chris Olave im looking right at you buddy), but QB is still a market to look towards. Rodgers is incredibly smart and unlikely to take a freak injury like he did last season. However, the Jets simply dont need him to throw 4,000 yards. An elite run game and defense, and a questionable line means this Jets team is going to win a bunch of 17-10 games, 13-6. Rodgers will master the clock, he will generate wins, but I’m not sure of a bold stat line. Bake in the risk of injury all QBs face, and market signals around this line, its still a viable under play.
Lastly, I know sports content is very limited this time of year! Gibby and I recorded a 10 things podcast. Some life, some sports, some TV, if you need something for the lull time :)