NFL MNF & NBA Best Bets Monday November 6th
I attached photos of both my NFL Week 9 and my NBA tracker for the weekend. Not only can you see the strong week continued into through weekend, being net positive in both sports, you can also look at what I choose to track. Tracking your plays is so important to stay organized, but what you track should be specific to your bet style. Here is the way I organize mine
*Funny note that my dates are backwards on my NBA tracker… just know even people who spend so much time on this stuff have moments where they get behind on the paperwork side.
No plans to stop stacking those green columns! Here’s how:
🏈 Monday Night Football Best Bet 🏈
Jets +3.5 (1u, DraftKings)
The home team New York Jets are the clear sharp side for this game, and although the line has held firm at 3.5 all week, we’ve had bouncing vig on the line at nearly every book. Make sure to line shop the sports books you bet at to make sure you are paying as close to -110 for this side as possible. I doubt this line comes down to 3 because the importance of the number, but it also, in my opinion, has no chance of going the other direction to the 4. That makes getting the right side of the hook, the home team in an under primetime game, and the sharp side at the opening line still a full unit play.
🏀 NBA Best Bets Monday November 6th 🏀
Pacers -7.5 vs Spurs (1unit, DraftKings)
The Pacers have been playing at a blistering pace and now face the Spurs on the second leg of a road B2B after playing in overtime. Situational nightmare. Spurs also lost Vassell recently who is an offensive spark, so keeping up scoring will be tough. This line posted at 7.5 as the entire market came in at 8.5 Knowing the travel and rest spot with the overtime game, the 7.5 was an instant grab for me.
Clippers -1.5 @ Knicks (1unit, Draftkings)
Harden is making his debut tonight, and while I dont normally play into narrative angles, angry James Harden is incredible at basketball. Hes also flanked by Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. The talent is overwhelming compared to Randle/Brunson combo, likely without RJ Barrett on the wing. My only concern is not having enough shooting around Harden, with Russ still likely starting (for now). If Harden gets into situations where he has Powell/George/Leonard around him, hes going to have double digit assist almost every night and hes proven it starts right away. Last point, they have the perfect coach in Ty Lue to quickly integrate a new weapon.
Warriors @ Pistons Under 229 (1unit, DraftKings)
This is a classic line movement cap. I have been playing Pistons unders and I knew the warriors cavs game on Sunday trended and landed under. So when I saw all the opening lines, DK at 229, every other book at 228.5 and flash to 228, I knew I was 95% to gain CLV. I’m kicking myself I didn’t slam this line, just put in a normal sized bet as I was tired. I foresee big and obvious value to be gained here and may not have capitalized enough.
Magic -1.5 (1unit, PointsBet)
Magic are so by far and away the sharp side based on early movement and splits. It sets up an inclination where Mavs may rest a player and the line may move big. Unsure if its Kyrie whos been banged up, or Luka whos had a massive workload. Either way, this line may move! I only played 1unit because the line already took a big move, so if everyone is active it actually may go against me. Also, I placed it on PointsBet because they allow full money cash out if line doenst move to remain flexible, Fanduel was having site maintenance, and DK doesnt give you equal value. Knowing what book to use, even when the lines are the same, can also help on the margins.
Jazz +4 (0.75u)
Slightly less than a full unit here only because the Jazz are not a strong road team, but sign me up for Lauri revenge game! The Jazz are taking movement to the 3.5, and the Bulls have been sad and disappointing. I’m just getting ahead of movement here, I can easily see this closing at 3 and gaining a full points of CLV.