NFL Week 1 Best Bets

Im so ready to dominate this season...

My first ever Substack Best Bets post! You’ll be seeing plenty of these here, so lets get straight into it.

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-110, 1.25u at PointsBet)
Detroit Lions v Kansas City Chiefs Over 54 (-110, 0.75u at PointsBet)

A fairly straightforward key numbers and line movement cap to start off the NFL season. The Chiefs opened as a -6.5 or -7 point favorite across all books (FanDuel had it at 6.5 while DraftKings had it at 7). Knowing that 7 is the 2nd most important number when betting NFL spreads because of its outcome frequency, I knew I wanted to follow market signs and grab either a +7 or a -6.5. I kept my eyes on this line for a while, and started noticing all the remaining 6.5’s either be juiced to -115, or just simply be moved up to 7. Clear market indicator around a key number that the sharp side is KC. I grabbed one of the last remaining -6.5’s that sits at -110 juice (as of this writing, this is still avail at PointsBet).

The same concept applies to the total. This total opened at 53.5, ticked north to 54, and its now sitting at 54.5 at nearly every book. I went and found a 54 where I push on the number and still get on the right side of the market with likely +CLV. There is clear sharp action on the NFL night opening over and also the correlated angle of favorites and overs in large total/spread situations, so I will play both for a total of 2u, but split exposure not evenly.

The reason to do the 1.25u on the 6.5 and 0.75u on the 54 is because spread outcomes are more common and thus more valuable than totals outcomes, and I have a win on the key number in the spread, a push on the total.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-110, 1u at FanDuel)
San Francisco 49ers v Pittsburgh Steelers Under 41.5 (-110, 1.5u at FanDuel)

These bets were placed on June 18th, and these were the most obvious bets for me to make for week 1 because both the total and the spread are hovering and moving around both the most important spread number and the most important totals number. Remember this, 3 and 41 are the most common outcomes in NFL games. So both numbers presented strong value.

When I placed this bet, I did not have information on the direction of movement relative to the key numbers. I incorporated some betting trends to evaluate the line and predict the movement to come. Introducing, Rah Rah Mike Tomlin. Coach T as a home underdog is something like 18-2 ATS. Sign me up! Add in the fact that the 49ers starting QB is a 2nd year player returning from offseason elbow surgery. Both of these defenses are super elite, the 49ers probably the best on paper going into the season, and the Steelers being a consistently elite unit thats coming into this season way healthier than they played last year and should get back to being a wrecking ball. Two 2nd year quarterbacks, two amazing coaches, two outstanding defenses, and the correlated angle of low scoring games and underdogs, I’m playing the Steelers and the under.

As of this writing, DraftKings still has a +3 at -115 for Steelers, it is the last +3 left on the board. For the total BetMGM has a 41.5 still up there, Ceasars and BetRivers have a 41, and the rest sit at 40.5. If you missed the 41s on the total, skip it. If your only spread option is a +2.5, then it does make for a great Stanford Wang Teaser Leg and push it up to +8.5.


Atlanta Falcons -3 (-110, 1.25u at FanDuel)

Call me the Atlanta Falcons biggest fan this season. They have been hammered in the futures market by sharps, showing the biggest preseason movement of any NFL team. They have the #1 easiest strength of schedule this season, and start with a home divisional game against rookie QB Bryce Young in his first ever start. Since I believe the Falcons to be incredibly underrated, I plan to ride them early in the season until the market begins to reflect. 2023 Falcons are the 2022 Eagles, they are going to score a lot of points with a run first approach. I also lean towards the over because of this, but the market is trending towards the under, so I can wait on a better number if I want to enter a contrarian angle, but I’m likely going to just skip it.

Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers Over 49.5 (-110, 1.25u at FanDuel)
LA Chargers -2.5 (-115, 0.75u at DraftKings)

The total for this line opened at 49.5 across all sports books, and now nearly every one has ticked it up 50. I also understand the significance that 50 and 51 are both in the top 7 most common NFL outcomes, so we are hovering around two very important totals numbers and taking the right side of market movement, grabbing an opening line, and getting the right side of the relative and important numbers. We also add in the angle that the Dolphins ran the ball the least of any team, the Chargers also have a very high throw rate with Herbert, but also one of the highest 4th down attempt rates. The Chargers dont like to settle for no points or even 3 points, they risk giving bad field position for a chance to score. I love that for over plays.

As of this writing BetMGM still has 49.5 at -110, 50 is available at DK, PB, CZ, BetRivers, and FanDuel has the lone 50.5 on the board.

I also took the LA Chargers -2.5 because a few books starting moving this to -3, so noticing the likely CLV gain around the most important number in NFL betting was a reason to dip the toes in the water. The reason the line is moving is because of injuries to Jalen Ramsey in the secondary and the LT for the dolphins Oline. I dont always fully buy into injury based line movement, but these are two big names and relative to the most important number, so give it to me for 0.75u.

New Orleans Saints v Tennessee Titans Under 42 (-110, 1.5u at FanDuel)

This writeup is going to be similar to the one above. 42 is a fairly insignificant number, it does not even finish in the top 20 most common NFL outcomes. Where on the flip side, 41 is the most important, 40 is the second most important. So we know the number we have at 42 sits just above two very significant digits. Now lets check for initial movement. Every book opened it at 42, and now Ceasars is the only one left with it! CZ is still offering 42 total on a -110 line, but everything else sits at 41.5. To be honest, i dont see much difference between 41.5 and 42, because 42 is rare for NFL games. So while its great to get the best number, we do have a strong read on movement and it not going through anything important. This is still a play despite movement if you only have 41.5 access.

Green Bay Packers v Chicago Bears Over 44 (-110, 1.25u at FanDuel)

44 is the 5th most common outcome for NFL spreads, and thus it is a significant number. Every book opened this at 44, and now DraftKings is the only one left that has it at -110. The rest of the market sits at 44.5, so let’s use market trends and key numbers to indicate we should ride the over here. To be honest, this one doesn’t feel as confident to me because I think the Packers defense is very underrated this year and may market correct after a few weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles v New England Patriots Un 46 (-110, 1u on Caesars)

These are two defenses I absolutely love this season, and an Eagles offense I think will take a step back this season. The Eagles offensive line ages another year, they are mostly veterans, and goes against a daunting front 7 in New England. On the flip side, the Patriots offense should be much improved this season under O’Brien, but how much can we expect right out of the gates? With a few books moving this line to 45.5, and some even juicing it to the under at that number, it was a clear indicator to grab the under 46 where it sat at -110.

Washington Commanders -6.5 (3u, -110 on Fanduel)
I think i may have been the last person to grab this available line, because when I posted it in the SportsEthos discord it was gone minutes later. I struggle to include this in my public portfolio because i was not able to give the line in time, and thus its a stale line. But just so you know, im on this. I advise using Commanders in any survival pool setting, and I think at -7 its still a 1unit play because i believe it will be pushed out to 7.5 or 8, and in the case you see a 7.5 it makes for an excellent Wong Teaser leg.

Titans +3.5 (-115 on Caesars, 0.75u)
I noticed some late sharp action coming in on the Titans, and it seems very correlated to the under that I am already on. Getting the +3.5 and the hook on the key number in a game where the total is dropping and is already as low as 41, this is a correlated angle. I only played for 0.75u because of my bigger exposure on the related under.

Cowboys at Giants Under 46 (-110, 1u DK)

Divisional game with road favorite week 1. Playing the under! Late add, lots of 45.5s popping up, id play them at a little less than a unit!