NFL Week 12 First Look!
Oy, I got smacked in the mouth yesterday. Another Sunday, another week of beating the closing lines but losing bets. It’s been a very frustrating NFL season so far but I plan to turn it around, and we have extra Thursday games this week! Just what the doctor ordered, less Sunday action 😂😂.
Looking at the opening lines right now, the 49ers -6.5 (-115 FD) is an obvious full 3u play. We can worry about possible buybacks later, or just letting it ride, but in a short week where Geno got hurt and the 49ers look dominant and hope to basically close out their division in prime time, it’s a no brainer. Load up now.
I am also going to grab Bears/Vikings Ov 44.5 at CZ. Its not ideal because the 44 is a key number, but the board is moving to 45, and these mobile QBs are moving their teams very well. I expect this to climb quite a bit. 1u because the number stinks.
The rest of the board presents some very strong teaser options! These teams fit Stanford Wong Teaser Rules, going through both the 3 and the 7: Lions, Steelers, Falcons, Dolphins, Texans, Cardinals. The Steelers are +1.5 at FanDuel, and the Cardinals are +1.5 at BetMGM, so if you are going to include them in teasers, make sure to use the right book. Also remember a few tricks. Try pairing legs that do not occur at the same time. Try paying as close to -120 for 2 leg teasers, and receive +160 for 3 leg teasers. If you are going to tease an underdog up, then pairing it with a low total is very helpful. If you are teasing a favorite down, the total is less significant. Choose which few options you like, and pair them together! I will have multiple teaser legs in my Week 12 portfolio. Btw, Eagles also fit a wong teaser in Week 11 MNF.
In terms of the NBA, 2 bets for tomorrow!
Bucks -8.5 (0.75u)
Pistons/Nuggets Ov 220 (0.75u)
I will fit both bets into one write up and explain why they both have slightly reduced exposure, only being 0.75u wagers. The Bucks is because the four most common NBA outcomes are below the 8, so playing the -8.5, even if I do obtain closing line value, is less significant than movement through other numbers. For the Pistons/Nuggets, it is the second leg of a B2B for both teams. The Nuggets havent rested anyone this season, maybe it comes, but also tired legs sometimes leads to less defense and this line seems to be trending north.