NFL Week 13 Best Bets & DFS Guide
5 Best Bets and a DFS Core 4!
I want to quickly note that this NFL slate has a high likelihood of being impacted by weather! Most of the outdoor games have potential rain. I am going to detail the bets I took, the numbers I got, and why I took those sides, but if you are going to place any of these as bets now, definitely consider how the weather may play into it! But these gambling gods cant rain on my parade I have a feeling a hot streak is brewing after having a great NBA week. My five best bets include…
Denver Broncos +3.5 (-115. 1.5u)
As of this writing, PointsBet still has a 3.5 available (at -110 even!) but the rest of the board has moved to 3. The Broncos enter this game on a five game winning streak and playing a safe brand of football. They kick field goals, don’t go for it on fourth downs, and play solid defense. It is low mistake football, and that leads to a lot of competitive football games. This week they go up against the Texans who have been very impressive this season, but the injuries continue to pile up for this team. With rookie leaders at head coach, QB, and some of the skill positions, I expect the lack of depth to loom large. We also just got a late scratch Dalton Shultz, which will play into the DFS side of things.
Detroit Lions -4 (1u)
Sharps and public alike on this spot as nearly 80% of both the bets and money is on the Lions side. We saw this open at 3.5 and be bet out to 4.5 nearly universally (PointsBet still has a -4), but knowing its public handle too, the line movement is the most notable shift. The cap here is that this Lions team generally plays strong at home and weak on the road. That is because they play in a home dome, and travel into weather spots in the NFC North- like annual trips to Soldier Feild and Lambeau. However, when Goff and the Lions go travel to New Orleans, they take on the Saints in a dome. It is less of a daunting schedule spot than usual, and one we can play into a road favorite Lions.
Carolina Panthers +5.5 (1.5u)
Major sharp spot combined with the coach fired bump theory. 23% bets, over 50% handle on the Panthers to cover the spread, line movement from 5.5 to 3.5 with these splits screams its sharp action. Also Frank Reich is out of there, hes been a disaster for years lol. We also have a divisional game which tend to generate less scoring, so getting a 5.5 sharp side, with public theory, and a divisional game, this became a strong play.
San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (1u)
The honest truth to this write up is one you probably wont see from other bettors. I had a lot of solid information that the line would move in the 49ers favor and this ticket would close with +CLV if I grabbed the -1.5. Whether it was the DVOA or EPM nerds, people with models saying it should be 3, or just about every smart football mind saying they are on the 49ers, I joined the party. I don’t have many football opinions about this game besides thinking I am incredibly excited to watch. I played it for 1unit at the 1.5, id play 0.5u at the -2.5, and I would stay away on the 3. Its a numbers game, not an opinion contest.
Kansas City Chiefs -6 (1u)
If there is a bet I think I lose this week based on reading the market, its this one. This KC side has become the public side of the market, taking a lot of bets, having more money on the Chiefs side, but the line is staying FLAT at 6. The book wants your chiefs money. I thought this would climb, its not. I am in on the Chiefs, but market indicators show this probably should have been just a stay away.
*DFS Core 4 is recommended to use in Cash Contests, not GPP Tournaments
Good luck! Let me know your favorite bet, or if you are taking down wings or subs this Sunday!