NFL Week 14 Thursday Night Football Best Bet
We got a barn burner brewing between Bailey Zappe and Mitch Trubisk-please change the channel 😂🤣. However, there was some sneaky betting value on the original under worthy of a discussion/post.
The total for this game opened at 33, and I immediately went and bet the under (and tweeted it out Sunday eve). I knew that 33 was not only the most common NFL outcome in the 30s, but also knew games priced this low still generally tend to go under! The books can’t seem to get this number low enough sometimes. So knowing the 33 is a relative key, knowing these tend to land as unders, and knowing these trend as unders on short week football between two backup QBs and elite defenses, the original bet position was more or less a no brainer.
I am going to let under 33 ride with no buyback and no plans to initiate the middle considering the numbers. With the current total at 30, having 3 points of CLV on an NFL total generally screams buyback, but the value of these super low numbers makes it not worth it. 32 and 31 are the 26th and 28th most common outcomes in NFL totals respectively, and neither reach an average hit rate of even 1.5%. If i am paying 5% implied probability for these numbers (and a push on the key), then the middle does not present enough value. I only went 1u, as opposed to 1.5u on Texans Jets Under 37, because of the importance of the given numbers. 37 dropping to now 32.5 certainly opens up some playback ability (I haven’t played it back yet- but likely going to).
Some quick other notes:
1. New England +6 is another clear sharp side. There are 45% of the bets and 63% of the money on that side. Considering the low total, it makes a lot of sense to take the points because it will be very hard to cover a TD spread in a game expected to have 30 points.
2. This game should not be impacted by weather conditions. It is expected to be clear skies, 39 degrees, and 8 mph winds. None of those components stick out as having an effect on the game.
3. In my fantasy football league I have Najee Harris and I am playing against Jaylen Warren in a matchup to determine the last playoff spot. Should I start Najee with him being a bit banged up in this gross under game? Or do I try and fit someone else in the flex like Theilen or Elijah Moore? Let me know! I need help!