NFL Week 15 Full Betting Card + DFS Core 4
Some Bonus NBA Thoughts as well!
We are nearing the end of NFL season, getting ready for the home stretch, and perhaps the biggest change in the football world is that the NFL now takes over Saturdays as well. Make sure your betting card, your fantasy lineup, your DFS entries are set before kickoff today!!
I have five best bets on the board! I am going to skip the detailed write ups, because I broke it all down in a 15 minute podcast! Click the button below to listen to the WHY behind all the plays!
🏀 Quick NBA debrief because the Saturday NBA board presents some massive opportunities. I found one book listing a Hawks +5.5 while the rest of the board is at +/- 2! There are spots where the Wolves are -7.5 when there is serious sharp money coming in, 8.5s on the board, and Haliburton on the second leg of a road B2B put on the injury list with knee soreness and questionable. If I am Hali, I don’t want the length and physicality of the Wolves defense on the second leg of a B2B. He has sat multiple times in this exact situation (like the last game vs Heat). If Hali is to miss, thats another huge movement line coming.
When I see such large discrepancies, I play the MLs against one another to arbitrage and automatically win. I will create some middle to win both bets are 5% implied probability. And I will tilt my exposure towards the side that seems to be pretty mispriced.
If you have access to the right books, that means playing Cavs -126 and Hawks +180 for a lot a lot a lot and locking in a nice profit. Also playing the -2 Cavs and +5.5 Hawks and having a nice middle. And tilting it likely towards Hawks +5.5 because I belive this lands around 2.5/3. The Hawks are traveling from Toronto to Cleveland for this B2B, but they haven’t listed anyone as injured and the Cavs are confirmed down Mobley and Garland.
You can really grow a bankroll by picking apart these middle of the night spots and differences between books. Go check your available books for Hawks/Cavs and Wolves/Pacers pricing immediately upon reading this and see if you can pick off a difference between two books.
