NFL Week 16 & NBA Thursday December 18th Best Bets
TLDR type of email...
Right now I am the pitcher in the dugout with a no hitter through 6 innings… HE’S HOT… STAY AWAY FROM HIM!!
6 straight winning days netting +21.25unit. STOP IT! Bring on tomorrow…
This email is longer than normal, here are the sections and feel free to skip around to what you are looking for.
- NFL TNF Betting Breakdown (Saints @ Rams)
- NFL Week 16 Best Bets
- NBA Best Bets Thursday December 21st
🏈 NFL Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown 🏈
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams (-4)
Game Total: 46
- Weather: Indoor Stadium, no weather.
- Line Movement: Open was Rams -3.5, quickly moved to -4. Since then it has stuck there, flashed to -4.5 at Fanduel, but back to 3.5 at some sharper books. Mixed signals in the line movement story. Both Fanduel and Draftkings are showing betting splits with heavy volume and money on the Rams side. Fanduel moving the line to provide the market Saints +4.5 (-115) and entice people who want Saints with a hook while charging 5c extra on the dollar is a signal that they are trying to even their exposure on the line. There is no degree of certainty whether other books catch up to 4.5, or FD comes back to 4 when they are ready… For the total, open was 44.5, steadily climbing up to 46 in line with the splits and seemingly smart money coming in on the over. Fanduel is doing the same thing here putting the under at 46.5, floating the number for people who want it, but charging -114.
- Betting Splits:
DraftKings 80% Bets, 88% Money Rams.
Fanduel 71% bets, 77% Money Rams… this makes sense that their Rams handle went down a little but once offering the Saints +4.5- another read that it will be more or less a flat market from here.
Total: 57% Bets 71% Money OVER
Best bet: Rams ML -198 (1u to win 0.51) I will do some reflection on Fridays podcast to explain why this number provides the best value vs any of the spread lines available. If you see Rams -210 but -4 or -4.5 (-105), take the spread instead. Its a numbers thing…. from a football perspective, its short week with two things I really value- health and coaching both favoring the home team Rams. Stafford is balling. Also kinda glad the best value bet wise gets me schmuck insurance of having the Rams by 3 which is actually the most likely single outcome for the game.
🏈 NFL Best Bets Week 16 🏈
Rams ML (1u to win 0.51, -198 DraftKings)
Browns -2.5 (0.75u, -114 Bet Rivers)
Jets -3 (1.25u, Caesars)
Ravens/49ers Over 46.5 (1u, Caesars)
Packers/Panthers Over 36.5 (1u, Fanduel)
Jaguars/Buccaneers Over 42.5 (1u, Caesars)
Numbers are super important in NFL, so grab these while you can. These are my spots so far and I will break it all down on the podcast Friday.
🏀 NBA Thursday December 21st Best Bets 🏀
yeah i know most of you came for this 😂, save the best for last.
Grizzlies -4.5 (2u)
I’m actually not a Grizzlies fan but I love betting on this team and feel they have been undervalued for about 3-4 years lol (oh, thats when Ja got drafted… ohhhh). The Pacers are also a public darling on the second leg of a road b2b vs the Griz first home game with Ja where they have struggled. They also may get Smart back per some insiders. I bet favorites at -4.5 slightly harder because 4 most common outcomes are 7/5/6/8. We also have probable line movement coming, as +19% splits in money > volume, smart money backing the GrizKids!!!
I will also likely hit some first quarter stuff for 0.5-1u of exposure depending on the lines we get. I’ll predict -1.5 at -115, and give me that for 0.75u if I see it. Those lines are not posted yet. The market will sharp on full game lines before they know which quarter props to set. Why would that be????? I can explain it on a pod.
Pelicans +1.5 (3u, -110 PointsBet)
This feels mispriced! The Cavs are on the second leg of a B2B without Mobley or Garland confirmed, and possibly down Mitchell for a second game in a row. Jarrett Allen struggles with size against him, which the Pels have in JoVal and Zion. The Cavs attack via perimeter, where the Pels have Herb/Dyson/Alvarado, and are loaded with defensive first role players to throw energy and looks at the Cavs lone scorer. This feels wrong. I hit it hard.
Jazz/Pistons Under 238.5 (-110 PointsBet, 0.75u)
Jazz -1.5 (-110, DraftKings, 0.5u)
These two teams trend majorly under, and with 237.5 already showing up, I’ll play it small. Pistons have no shooters, Jazz will be on second leg of a road B2B. I also feel very comfortable taking the Jazz here. They are coming off a tough loss to a weak Cavs team, and should have the best player on the floor in Lauri. If the Pistons do win, I am confident that wins on the under because its rare for them to put up a huge offensive output. This feels like an indirect buyback/middle spot.