NFL Week 17 Full Card
Low Volume, Low Risk
We are down to the final two weeks of the regular NFL season! This is equivalent of “silly season” in the NBA, where many teams are no longer prioritizing winning. Instead, we will get things like random QB starters and game plans designed so the team can evaluate the final pieces they need to before the offseason. Since my handicapping process primarily applies to spreads and totals, it is a good time to reduce exposure and volume. I have less bets than normal, and they are smaller positions that have less risk. If you handicap NFL props, then you can actually have some nice edges if you have a strong read. Pop your favorite prop in the comments, maybe I will tail you!
I also did not do an NFL podcast for this weekend. I was grinding out so much NBA action, and my positions on the NFL board were both small and flat; so I saved myself the time and skipped an NFL podcast. Not sure the plan next week, as the numbers will dictate my action and plans.
I will 100% be doing NFL gambling podcasts and DFS breakdowns during the playoffs. I think NFL playoffs is the easiest NFL action to cap, I will not be missing out. I also may have a weekly guest lined up who is a high level handicapper himself coming to join The Advantage on a few NFL playoff episodes!
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🏈 NFL Best Bets Week 17 🏈
Colts -3.5 (0.75u)
The colts at home have covered their team total over in every game, so I expect the offense to be fine in this contest. On the flip side I am fading the Aiden O’Connell start for the Raiders. He did not complete a single pass after the 1Q last week. That wont happen again, but I dont think he is putting up a game with strong stats. The Colts can stack the box against Zamir White as the Raiders are also down Josh Jacobs. Give me the home Colts in the LoudHouse
Dolphins @ Ravens Under 47 (1u)
This lines up to be an epic game that may end up being a flat viewing experience, as I expect it to be a clear under spot. The over is very public here. 79% of the bets, 72% of the money on the 46.5. It bounced to 47, and came back to 46.5. It is a sharp vs public spot, with sharps on the under. Also side bar, I think I am reaching the point where I will start to consider myself a sharp too.
Broncos ML -180 (0.5u)
Stidham SZN! The Broncos have benched Russell Wilson and the line reflected that it was a bad decision and the Broncos were better off with Russ. That does not account for the future, and the fact that Russ is being benched primarily because of his contract guarantees for next season that the Broncos dont want to risk paying for if he gets hurt. Despite this, I think the Broncos get that enthusiasm bump. I think they try and prove themselves this week, and I think they have one of the most reliable coaches to design a workable scheme around a QB. We have seen how well coached the Broncos are all season, so give me impact of the coach over the QB.
As I mentioned above- I am not a props guy but this week and next calls for prop value. Maybe consider some players contract incentives (the books know about them too, its not a huge edge but it is an indicator to the style they may play). If you have a juicy prop you really like, let me know in the comments!!
