NFL Week 6 Best Bets
With the Monday Night Football late Raiders ATS addition, Week 5 ended at 3-1, +1.15u, bringing our season total to +3.38u. It was a good week we look to build upon. Before we get into the five Week 6 bets I’ve placed, let’s start with two notes of housekeeping!
1. Week 6 Full Slate Breakdown Show Tonight 8pm EST! These live shows turned podcasts are truly high value, really engaging, and I may be biased but they’re also very fun. I keep seeing the same people come back week after week, which means those who are tuning in are making a point to come back the next week. Come join us, ask any questions you have, and I promise you will learn a lot in a short bit of time!
*Also do me a solid and throw a LIKE on this video even now, so it reaches more eyes when I go live
2. Free Justin Fields Rookie Card Giveaway is LIVE: We all saw what Fields did on Thursday Night Football, he proved his supporters right and confused his doubters with that performance. He also easily earned being the giveaway card this week. All you have to do is comment on this post and you are entered to win! Let me know how you did in Week 5!
Ok… the good stuff! Remember to check this page throughout the week because I will add on write ups if/when I add on bets.
Week 6 NFL Best Bets
1. Tennessee Titans +4.5 (-105, 0.5u FanDuel)
This bet was placed before any Week 5 games took place in a look ahead bet. In week 5, I knew I was backing the Titans vs the Colts, I knew I was backing the Steelers vs the Ravens, so I had one team I was backing and another I was fading playing against on another in a look ahead spot. Then I considered the splits, and realized this game was being played in London. London games are generally under spots. Under spots support underdogs. The underdog was the team I was backing, the favorite was the fade, it all lined up for a small bet on the +4.5 Titans. Now its at +3.5, I wish I had bet it harder, but I’ll just keep it where its at now. I’m ok with a +3.5/4 at still 0.5u small bet. If you only see +3.5, simply wait and see if it ticks back up to 4.
2. Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (-110, 0.75u DraftKings)
Is it really a FiddlesPicks Substack email if it doesn’t mention me betting on the Falcons? The market is still yet to reflect this team is strong and consistent. Give me the Dirty Birds again, and likely many more this season. They have the easiest and most consistent schedule in the league, I expect them to start rolling mid season.
3. Saints -1.5 (-104, 0.75u FanDuel)
4. Saints at Texans Ov 41 (-110, 0.5u FanDuel)
Saints were one of the teams I was highest on entering the season. It was nice to see them smack the Patriots on the road and hand Bill Belichick the worst loss of his career. Now they go into Houston, where we know Derek Carr is out for David Carr revenge 😂😂. The texans are a public darling with how Stroud is playing, but the injuries keep piling up for this team and eventually his rookie wall will show because his supporting cast is dropping like flies. Who dat?, Who dat? Who dat say they gonna beat them Saints? NOT ME! I also took a small play on the over not because I love a texans/saints over but because the betting splits showed it to be an obvious sharp spot.
5. Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 46 (-110, 0.75u FanDuel)
Holy CLV on a Monday! I had this spot circled from a look ahead perspective. The number was 45 and indicators towards the under. The bucs are coming off bye, their defense is stout and full of veterans, the lions are dealing with a rash of injuries, Goff struggles on the road, and the Lions defense has been amongst the most surprisingly good units in the NFL. Easy under! When this reopened at 46 on FD I waited for DK to open, it came up 45.5, and I snagged the under right away. I was unsure if my read was right or wrong here, now I wish I had maxed it because the live line sits at 43.5. To me this is now a stay away since it moved through the 44, and I will consider buy backs based on how it moves or how low it goes. I tweeted it out instantly, I know a few people got it, i hope you were one of them!
I will add more bets as they are placed throughout the week
Please remember to tune in for the live steam tonight 8pm eastern (link above), please share this post with a friend who is interested in sports betting, and leave a comment so you are entered to win the giveaway!