NFL Week 8 & NBA Sun 10/29 Best Bets
Long post coming with tons of bets. No fluff, just stuff, here we go.
🏈 NFL Week 8 Best Bets 🏈
New Orleans Saints +1.5 (0.75u)
New Orleans Saints +7.5/Detroit Lions -1.5 Teaser (0.75u)
Saints @ Colts Under 42.5 (0.5u)
A normal week of betting action for me contains a flurry of Saints bets. I just cant quit playing into a strong defense, an easy schedule, and skill position players I continue to trust to turn it around. This line opened +1.5 and has swung 3 full points to -1.5, moving through teaser zones. I had a feeling I would gain +CLV here through the 1, which the is 6th most common NFL spread outcome, so that was worth playing on its own. I also played it into a wong teaser leg with another qualify in a different time window. I grabbed the Monday Night Home Lions to increase my betting flexibility. The position I got wrong here is the Under. I expected two run heavy teams, but now I’m realizing two strong run defenses may force them to pass and look to push the ball. I correlated dog with under, the movement is now saints as favorites with the over!
Jaguars @ Steelers Ov 41.5 (0.5u)
Early indicators showed this to be an over spot with both teams finally pushing the ball down field and moving. Not fair to call this a best bet because I no longer recommend it, but its a bet im on so it gets a write up. The number has come back the other way to 40.5, crossing against me through the most important total in the 41, and I’m just thankful I have such low exposure on it.
Carolina Panthers +3 (-115)
I was planning on grabbing a full unit Panthers in anticipation of some playback opportunity, as I felt the line was priced a full point off market at crucial #3. However I only played 0.75u because the best line I could find when I went to place was a -115, so it invited less value on a playback and I forewent that possibility. This line has also moved to 3.5 and to be honest I do not understand this one bit. One of the more confusing line movers I’ve seen all season. My splits show less than 20% bets, more than 80% handle. Is there a news break coming that we dont know about? The move to 3.5 baffles me, intrigues me, doesnt scare me away, I would still play it. From a football angle, Reich after bye, battle of the prove it Rookie QBs, home team with strong rest and prep angle.
Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (0.75u)
Atlanta Falcons +8.5/Detroit Lions -1.5 Teaser (0.75u)
Very similar to the Saints situation. I expected positive line movement, because I knew Tannehill was likely out but not confirmed, on the +2.5. I saw the teaser opportunity, so I smacked it together with the Monday Night wong leg. And then Tennessee rules out Tannehill, announces they will play two quarterbacks, and trades their best safety. There’s an old football adage that says, “if you have two quarterbacks, you really have no quarterbacks.” That looks awfully true in the face of Malik Willis and Will Levis. Give me Ridder/London DFS stack as well in tournaments.
New England Patriots +10 (0.75u)
Patriots @ Dolphins Un 47 (0.75u)
A great dog/under correlated angle here. With a spread as large as +10, and an anticipated weather spot and divisional under game, I grabbed both lines quickly. I even added and evened my exposure on the under as the week progressed, as it looks like some weather may impact this game. We also have potentially mounting injuries, or fins players playing dinged up, which could cause a sharp movement south in the total and some Sunday morning buyback opportunities. Our hope is not can the Patriots keep up with the Dolphins, its can they slow them down? If NE slow Miami, we likely cover both!
Cincinatti Bengals +6 (0.5u)
I played this bet based on rest advantage and some injuries to 49ers players like Deebo, Trent Williams, and Mccafrey. Then CMC played every snap in a Monday contest, but Purdy got banged up, and the number moved as low as 3.5 with Darnold expected to start. Brock Purdy cleared protocol and the line climbed back to 5.5. It’s kind of a gross bouncing game with injury indicators, so I’m glad to have a little +CLV on a key number of 6, but also glad to have small exposure. For me it comes back to a small play based on +8 days Bengals rest advantage. Bye week 14 days vs Monday night 6 days.
Vikings @ Packers Un 43.5 (1.25u)
Vikings @ Packers Ov 42 (0.5u)
I took both of these bets at the exact same time. I saw a large market gap between two reputable books, I noticed the rest of the market was closer to the 42, so i grabbed both and tilted towards the under 43.5. I knew this provided me 5% implied probability on the middle spot, with 43 winning and 42 pushing. These two outcomes combined are north than 5%, and there is an added bonus that games priced around these numbers are more likely to land there. Lets hope for a beautiful middle here, 23-20 and I don’t care who wins lol!
🏀 NBA Sun 10/29 Best Bets 🏀
Denver Nuggets -2 (1u)
OKC is off to a strong start, but its a tough test against the defending Champs. The reason why OKC is playing so well is because they are getting into the lane well, and spacing with Chet with not being exposed on defense. They have played Vuc and a Cavs team missing Jarrett Allen. Now facing Jokic, and even Aaron Gordon, they feast from the paint and will be hard to contain. On defense, they also protect the paint well and force you to shoot. Spread and drive is not going to be fruitful for OKC here.
76ers/Blazers Under 219 (1u)
The 76ers play a half court offense through Embiid and are slow, the Blazers lack shooting and have slowed down with Ayton in half court sets. With the young blazers traveling to a tough philly home opener crowd, and the 76ers playing the second leg of a B2B after traveling home from Toronto, it felt like this game may lack energy and pace, and was worth playing the under.
Los Angeles Clippers -8.5 (0.5u)
Clippers/Spurs Un 229 (-105, 0.75u)
This felt like two sharp sides brewing that while both may gain closing line value, they are not in tandem with one another. When games are moving under, the underdog has a higher chance to cover a large spread. This is a large spread, because its north of the 4 NBA key numbers, 7/5/6/8. I reduced exposure on the spread because its above 8, and with that movement through a few extra total ticks may cumulatively be worth more value. I was also only paying -105 for the total, and had a lower implied probability cost of the odds.
