NFL Wildcard Weekend First Bets
Early money down on the Browns
A roller coaster NFL regular season ended on a really positive note. Since Week 13 I am +7.11 units. My futures portfolio hinges on Myles Garrett winning DPOY as the profitable vs costly make or break, and he is the current frontrunner.
Despite the great run, I am still a net -2.21u on the season thus far. It has easily been my most frustrating NFL gambling period, loaded with bad beats and metrics that show I was ahead of closing lines at my normal 80-85% rate, but my win rate was significantly lower. Any single NFL season is small sample size, certainly my portfolio of around 100 bets. The bad luck means I am at risk of having my first losing NFL season EVER!!! I do find the NFL playoffs easier to handicap, so I hope to continue this strong push and finish back on top.
Quick aside: I am already up over 50units already in the NBA, and despite having a tough NFL stretch, these last few months remain the hottest and biggest returns I have ever seen in my gambling career. Splitting stats for content can tell different stories, my bankroll been laughing straight to the bank.
🏈 NFL Wildcard Weekend Best Bets 🏈
Browns -1.5 (2u)
My first action of the 2024 NFL Playoffs was on the dog pound browns to beat the Texans in the AFC 4/5 matchup. I originally grabbed the -1.5 at -110 at BetMGM, and then tacked on another half unit at Caesars when these lines were disappearing. The Browns had an extra week to rest, had a strong sense of their opponent, and already manhandled the Texans earlier this season. I expect this Browns defense to get after the Texans early and often, and Joe Flacco to remain Joe Cool under the pressure and deliver balls on time and on target to his variety of weapons. I trust the experience and leadership here of a QB who has won a superbowl, a head coach who has made the playoffs, and weapons like Cooper/Njoku/Hunt who have all played in some major games before. The CJ Stroud story has been epic, and he reminds me a lot of Lebron in his mannerisms, but the rookie ride ends this weekend for the new hometown hero of Houston.
The line is now out to -2.5 and I am still comfortable playing it, but I would play it less. The transition from -1.5 to -2.5 is worth 12 cents on its own, but now we are even seeing juiced -2.5s at -115 and -120. Make sure you find the least vig and best number you can. If you are stuck with a bad number, wait till later in the week when it may come back down a bit. If you like the Texans, consider teasing it up to 8.5. That makes a lot of sense numbers wise.
Bills -425 ML (1.25u to win 0.35)
My worst nightmare was the Bills missing the playoffs and the Steelers making it. I was arguing we needed an NFL Playoff Committee to boot the Rudolph Steelers if that was the case. However, since the Bills took care of business over the Fins (and the Jags lost), we have the Bills at home as the 2 seed and taking on the Steelers. The Steelers just lost TJ Watt and have struggled to stop the run so much this year. The Bills are going to feast on the ground, and have so many options to beat you over the top. The spread opened at 7.5, I missed it, was quickly bet out to 9.5 and even 10. Instead of playing the big spread, just give me the ML. Same risk, less return.
🏀 NBA Check Ball Podcast is LIVE 🏀
When NFL winds down, NBA ramps up! With less numbers to crunch and games to cap, I am now able to add on some more NBA content. The newest addition to my show is a new weekly podcast on The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast feed that is called Check Ball.
Every Monday I will be talking ball with AV for roughly 45 minutes. It will be a state of the NBA check in. This week we…
- Ranked Morant, Haliburton, Fox and Donovan Mitchell
- Talked which coach is on the hottest seat
- Did a trade market check in
- Fixed in In Season Tournament
- and did some NBA Futures Rapid Fire.
If you are an NBA junkie like I am, tap and tune into these shows!