Nothing New but the News...
No new bets added after the Monday games!
I’ll do a longer recap of yesterday’s card because I genuinely can’t tell if last night was lucky or unlucky… You be the judge!
Boston -8 was a great play; Donovan Mitchell was announced out and the spread closed all the way at -11.5/-12. The Celtics led by the spread for 85% of the game, with a few Cleveland spurts to pull it within sweat territory. Celtics go up 9 with 13 seconds left. Then Caris Levert brings it up and he’s looking to shoot, not dribble out the clock. Good thing Jrue Holiday is still out there grinding on defense. Jrue gets a beautiful contest on the midrange jumper, but the shot goes in. 2 seconds left, 1 second left… Celtics win by 7. Celtics -8, splat ❌ 🥲.
Can I look back and say I was lucky for only having half a unit on it despite dominant CLV? In that spot, I dream of having a max 3+ unit wager. The uncertainty around the Jarrett Allen injury news made me hesitant for any authoritative position. I ended up beating the news, yet getting lucky my initial read was passive.
Then we go over to OKC vs Dallas… I’ll have to look for an update from Shams, but I think the pregame security took the referees whistles at the metal detectors 😂😂😂. NOTHING was called - in both directions! Dallas had 12 blocks to 0 fouls in those situations. How? Luka continues to get treated like a UFC fighter on a basketball court 🥊🥊.
It becomes damn near impossible to win an over position when the game is being called so loosely. At that point, it is so physically exhausting that OKC’s shooting woes is not that much of an anomaly, more of a reflection of the game. However, I knew that the OKC/Dallas over was my worst bet of the night. It was behind the market for the majority of the post-bet-pre-tip window before taking late steam and closing at 216. It did have +CLV, but it had weird signals all around it. It was a fine bet, not good, not bad. By the time I wanted off during the game, I would have exposed myself to the polish middle which I am reluctant to do… But tip for you: if you sense tons of physicality and a lagging whistle, live bet unders!
Where I got truly lucky tonight was the Thunder spread/ML combo. OKC was such a sharp side tonight, it was so obvious from market signals. Despite being on the right side of the line pregame, OKC came out FLAT! The Thunder looked cooked; they shot 9% of 3pointers in the 1H, Lou Dort was bringing up the ball, SGA was waiting in the corner and coming off of movement screens. It was weird! They went into half down 11 - before they came alive in the fourth quarter! The Thunder started playing to their strengths, getting SGA the ball with movement around him and allowing him to operate in the midrange. A roaring OKC comeback and they win by 4!
Cumulatively, it was a 2-3 night, -1.2units, and was my first losing night in over a week. It is hard to complain when I am now +7.55units over my last 6 betting slates. It took a meaningless Cavs jumper, losing my alt spread -5 with only a 4 point win, and the over not hitting when Luka did have a chance to tie the game with free throws with 10 seconds left and send it to OT…
Ok, clearly its not that hard to find ways to complain 😂😂. It could have been another insane day but it took some magic from the gambling gods to knock some of high that I have been on.
As I mentioned at the top, I have no new bets added from todays games - but I do have some quick news and I can organize the Tuesday schedule.
Quick News - I have family and friends in town visiting me and staying with me from Tuesday-Saturday! While I’m excited to see them… it means you will hear less from me during that time.
1. Substack Emails this week will come only when new plays are added (sorry for making you read this one 😂)
2. Likely no podcasts this week on The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast feed. Maybe I can do a quick solo show at some point, but I am not going to schedule guests without knowing my own schedule.
3. This is a good time period anyways to dial back betting because as series get deeper, lines get sharper! Tighter consensus, home court is priced, no rest/travel disparities, matchup exploitations understood, prop angles priced out. I will reconsider hedges for my futures positions based on how Game 5 NYK/IND and OKC/DAL plays out. That will dictate my plays as series potentially close out.
4. GOOD LUCK ON YOUR BETS! Just because you don’t have my plays does not mean you start submitting parlays ❌❌❌. If you have success identify a read, getting some line movement, and securing the W- reach out and let me know about it! Love the success stories!
Ok we made it to the end!!! So we stay organized…
🏀 NBA Best Bets Tuesday May 14th 🏀
IND Pacers +2.5 (0.5u)
DEN Nuggets -4 (0.75u)