Quarter Season Check In!
Football lifers have always divided the season into 4s, and when they added a 17th game, these same people just said, its 4 sets of 4 with a bonus game. So when I reflect as the season progresses, I will always do a 4 week check in.
Right now I sit at +2.21units. But, I’ve been resting on my laurels off a dominant week 1, and slowly giving it back to the books over the last 3. I am feeling a little frustrated with the results while still knowing my process has remained very strong. Let’s dive into process vs results.
My process has always remained steadfast. The goal of every bet I place is to get ahead of the market before a game starts and obtain closing line value (CLV). If the live line represents a 50/50 chance of winning, and the bet ticket I hold is ahead of the current line, then my chance to win is 50% PLUS the percent likelihood the game ends on the number I’ve obtained by beating the market. If that sounds confusing, read it twice and let it sink in!
As I reflect on my process so far, I’m still checking all the boxes and obtaining Closing Line Value on north of 80% of the bets I’ve placed. It is anomalous to have 3 NFL weeks in a row with net loses despite 80%+ of my overall exposure has positive closing line value… but at the end of the day we are betting on an leather oblong shaped ball that bounces in weird directions and is played outdoors with weather factors. Thats another way of me saying, shit happens.
Let me quickly dive into two examples from Week 4 where process worked but results fell flat. I’ll use the bookend primetime games, Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Thursday Night Football was Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers. Early in the week, I grabbed the over 45 for 1unit. The line sat at 45.5/46 in the lead up, and I was in a strong position. Shortly before the game, the line dropped hard to 44.5, and I quickly realized, grabbed under 45.5 for 1.25u, retilted my position towards the under while also reducing my overall bet exposure to about a quarter unit. The line universally closed at 44.5, 45 is a key number, and I was a full 1 point ahead of the market with a small overall exposure and CLV in a key number. WOMP. The game flew over.
Come Monday Night Football, I was eyeing the New York Giants as home underdogs while the Seattle Seahawks showed public splits behind them and had some offensive line injuries. In the first quarter, the Seahawks lost another offensive lineman to injury. I kept waiting for the right number. And then there was a 3rd down play when the Seahawks picked up a first down but there was a flag thrown, the play was going to be nullified, yet Fanduel actually had registered the first down. I knew it was going to change, I knew the odds were momentarily mis priced, and I grabbed it quick at +132. When the odds were corrected, and the site flipped it to 4th down, the odds changed to +114 before the next snap even took place. I had obtained 18c on the dollar of closing line value with a live bet before the next snap happened. The process there is truly elite…. until you watch the results and question any process of backing the New York Giants 😂😂😂
So as we head into week 5, I will stay true to the process knowing I am still in the black this season, and the math is bound to move in my direction.
🚨 TONIGHT AT 8PM ET YOUTUBE LIVE SHOW OF NFL WEEK 5 FULL SLATE BREAKDOWN 🚨
I will review every gambling angle for the upcoming Week 5 games. Opening lines, early line movement, betting splits, key numbers, relevant trends, travel schedules, and so much more! The actualization of the process detailed above happens on these slate breakdowns! I actually have no bets placed thus far for Week 5, but I’d imagine that changed and I can give some out live tonight.
*The slate breakdowns are viewable later if you cannot make it live, and also uploaded as a podcast to The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast feed”
Link to show (throw a LIKE on the video now if you can, it will help bring more eyes!)
🚨 LATER THIS WEEK 🚨
- DFS Week 5 Slate Breakdown & Core 4 shows as Podcasts & non live YouTube Videos
- Mid week email with bet write ups
- Weekend email with final betting card summary
- The rollout of some NBA content! 🏀
📝 I also wanted to share an article written by Josiah Clarke, a models based NFL handicapper I highly respect. He wrote about the ups and downs of sports betting, feeling the emotions that come with the industry, and also explored process vs results. It was more of a 30,000 foot view, not specific to betting principles or whats happened so far like I wrote above. If you are interested, check it out! Click Here
Have a great week everyone, hope to see you guys tonight in the live stream, otherwise you’ll hear from me soon!