Regular Season Stats!
I'm not crying, you're crying
🚨 Tracking your bets is SO IMPORTANT 🚨
Let’s start this post by saying - if you do not have an organized way to track your bets, reach out to me and I can provide you the resources. I will provide you a blank copy of my coded google sheets/excel document that has all formulas pre set.
Upside to tracking:
- allows you to have a cohesive and organized bankroll that is an accumulation of all individual sports book accounts.
- you learn yourself as a bettor! My tracker organizes bet type, date range, etc. So I can see how I did on props vs totals, or January vs March, or I can stack years together and notice schedule trends develop. Then when I re approach the odds board, I know my biggest strength areas to continue to attack.
- Prevents mistakes! I almost forgot about my Cavaliers 25:1 NBA Title ticket (yuk), I may not have seen it buried down in my pending wagers, but when I graded some futures at the end of the season- I saw that existed, thought oh shit, ok I will have to consider that during the Magic-Cavs series.
- Funny moments!!! Maybe I can laugh because of the amazing stats about to come, but hahahahaahha when I graded Atlanta Hawks division winner and Grizzlies NBA title winning tickets. CP3 6th Man. Franz Wagner Most Improved. LOL. Yeah, not even close.
Downside to Tracking:
- its tedious and time consuming. Thats about it. Its definitely annoying to place bets, type them on substack, type them twitter, have them pending, have my accounts automatically do the math for me, and then have to add them to an excel tracker and do some of the math myself. But its 100000% worth it when you have it settled. Do it! If you stink at doing it daily (I do), make it a weekly/bi-weekly habit to sit down and update it. Access all your accounts, go to graded and pending wagers, and check everything diligently!!! I have the added step and caveat of making sure its also given out and time stamped on twitter so my tracking perfectly reflects my content.
Ok, so what did it show?!
As of 4/16, I have graded every regular season bet placed, I have graded all regular season futures (win totals, season prop numbers). I have graded all playoff futures that are dead (Grizzlies title ticket). I have graded SOME awards races, but MOST are left unknown. I will go back and update if things change, but I felt confident to mark Jokic as MVP, Wemby as ROY, Daigneault as Coach of the Year. I have not graded Clutch Player of the Year, 6th Man, Most Improved, and I had no Gobert DPOY so I marked the one Bam ticket as an L.
THE RESULTS ARE IN!!!!
300 WINS
251 LOSSES
54.46% HIT RATE
+92.35 UNITS
My #1 takeaway in pure amazement is the 54.46% hit rate. A -110 odds correlates with a 52.38% hit rate, but we have to consider my play style.
I play back so many of my numbers. I bet both sides of the same game with a small middle window and often tilt my exposure between the two bets towards the side with CLV. So in a given game, I may bet the open at -4.5 for 1unit, it closes at 6, and I’ll bet +6 for half a unit.
If we math out this situation, my hit rate is likely going to be 50/50 (with a slight chance at the big middle), but also factor in that I am tilted towards the side with +CLV, so if the market indicators are right, I will end up +units despite a 50/50 hit rate and being below my implied probability of -110s on each side which correlates with a 52.38 hit rate. See how this gets intricate…
So for me to have this play style and end up at 54.46% - there is no way around it besides that is fucking nuts. Sign me up to do this on repeat!!!
I can also yet again confirm, betting NBA total unders is my bread winner. Unders finish the regular season at +62units with a 62% hit rate. Again, here the hit rate is more important than the net units here, bc I play so many big middle totals, the unit numbers can be skewed by which of the like 7-8x huge middles that I open, which direction they land when they split win one/lose one, and I eat vig loss. My tracker gets a little whack when I eat vig loss on a game, but my total unders goes +10units and my total overs goes -11units because the fiddles middle didnt hit and went under. You could seperate by initial position and buyback, but its equally convoluted.
As long as you can understand your tracking style to your play style, that is all thats important!!!
LETS KEEP THIS GOING THROUGH THE PLAYOFFS 💰💰💰
Few more things!
Here are current Play In/Playoff Best Bets:
Warriors -2 (0.5u)
76ers -4.5 (0.75u)
Bulls -3 (1.5u)
Mavs/Clips Un 226 (0.75u)
Magic/Cavs Un 207.5 (0.75u)
Hedging! Reach out to me if you need help hedging futures tickets!!!!
- I hedged Suns 25:1 with some Wolves series -102 in R1
- I am not hedging Pacers 500:1 with Bucks, I plan to wait on Giannis news and play Bucks game to game instead of series
- I have Cavs 25:1, I do not plan to hedge vs Magic at all early.
…and a Playoff Preview/Season in review podcast!