Remain Flexible, NOT Fixated!
Thursday Night Football is an OVER spot!
For readers of this newsletter who also listen to The Advantage Sports Betting Podcast, you know I often emphasize the importance of continually evolving as a bettor in alignment with changes in the sports gambling world.
Over the last few years, increased legalization has led to a surge of new bettors entering the space and sportsbooks opening new markets that were previously unpriced. These changes have prompted adjustments in betting strategies, alongside shifts in play styles and team approaches. We’ve seen an increase in the efficiency of two-point conversion attempts, which has influenced late-game clock management strategies. Teams now often go for two-point conversions when down by 14 points after scoring their first touchdown. If the 51% success rate holds, then two attempts could project a tie and provide a slight edge to win by one point. If bettors haven’t adapted to this change—whether in live betting strategies or in spread betting related to shifting key numbers—they risk being priced out over time, potentially turning from winners into losers.
One of the most significant changes I’ve noticed over the last two seasons is the prevalence and availability of look-ahead lines. Before the NFL season started, DraftKings released odds for every single game! We could bet on a Week 10 matchup between the Giants and Panthers in the middle of summer—this is a new development! On a weekly basis, most sportsbooks are already pricing the following week’s games.
The availability of these look-ahead lines has drawn sharp bettors to identify key numbers, predict likely line movements, and place bets earlier than ever. One reaction I’ve observed is that when lines reopen after a Sunday slate, buyback through key numbers tends to occur early in the week. For me, one change this season has been a clear initiative to handicap look-ahead lines midweek. I will definitely be doing a Gridiron Gold article in the coming weeks that deep dives into look-ahead betting strategies.
Last week, before Week 5 kicked off, I noticed a pricing discrepancy for tonight’s Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers game. Caesars was offering a total of 48, while no other book even had 47.5. There were also 47s and 46.5s available, with a stray 48. I grabbed the UNDER 48, understanding that prime-time games, short-week games, and divisional games tend to lead to lower scoring. Before Week 5 began, that Caesars 48 dropped to 47, giving me a full point of closing line value (CLV) in a strong position.
As sharps continued to analyze the data for these two specific teams—especially following Week 5 results, where both the Seahawks and 49ers lost outright as touchdown favorites—this game emerged as a clear over spot when the line reopened at 46.5. Despite holding an Under 48, I wasn’t fixated on my position. I always remain flexible, knowing the market is smarter than I am, and my goal is to hold tickets with good numbers.
With one unit on the Under 48, I didn’t hesitate to reposition myself in response to the changing environment. I placed 1.25 units on the Over 46.5, locking in a situation where I was now tilted toward the over, and I had a positive value middle with 47 as a win and 48 as a push number. The market continued to gain steam, and I observed 47.5s starting to turn into 49s. I remained flexible and added another half unit on the Over 47.5.
I now head into the game with 1.75 units of exposure on the Over 46.5, 47.5, and 1 unit on the Under 48. I expect to profit tonight with a +EV portfolio. If I hadn’t adapted, I would have looked foolish, lagging half a point behind an evolving market and locked into a position that isn’t truly mine. Stay flexible! Be willing to dump tickets! Once you place a bet, be open to new information and ready to take an out, reposition, or sometimes even double down.
This Saturday, the Gridiron Gold series will feature Robby Greer as we delve into quantifying Home Field Advantage. Seattle is well known for the “12th Man,” so I’ll point out that the Seahawks at Lumen Field have a record of 121-59, with an average margin of victory of 3.88 over the last 16 weeks. On the flip side, the 49ers currently have the worst Home Field Advantage, at -4.13 points over the last 16 weeks. Perhaps the 49ers won’t be too concerned about traveling to face a Pacific Northwest division rival.
Thursday also features Game 1 of the WNBA Finals - I did a podcast with professional poker player Drew Johnson yesterday to talk WNBA and NBA Opening lines.