Reverse, Reverse!
Know when to go the other way.
What a nice welcome back NBA night, going 5-2 and +0.51u. It did suck to lose the biggest bet in Knicks ML; but Jamal Murray hitting a late 3, then fouling Mathurin to send him to the line so the Nuggets @ Clippers game went over was icing on the cake of a winning day.
Back at it tomorrow with already 6 bets placed in main markets (sides and totals). I will be LIVE on twitter and youtube at 11AM ET breaking down every game - sides, totals, and props. I will be joined by poker player Drew Johnson and another very special guest is set to debut on the stream. I won’t ruin the surprise.
But until then, here are 2 actionable +EV player props
1. (NOP) Jeremiah Fears over 7.5 Rebs + Asts (-110, DK)
+EV play: +3.31%
Projected: 9.1 RAs, Fears has logged 28+ minutes in 3 straight games before the break- a sign of renewed trust from Coach Borrego. He’s had 7 and 18 RAs in his last two (should be somewhere in the middle). “Point Zion” is still the motif for the Pelicans, but with Trey Murphy out, Fears is the next man up. Love the number. Market and model both agree.
2. (BKN) Nolan Traore under 12.5 Points (+100, Bet365)
10.46% +EV
The title of the newsletter to REVERSE and to know when to go the other way comes from playing Traore overs numerous times before the break. All of them were Ov 11.5 points, and now the line sits at 12.5 with vig towards the over. Thats overcorrected, time for an under.
Projected: 11.7 points, this is an “OKC tax” spot for opposing guards. Traore was also on a heater two weeks before the All-Star break, shooting 52% from the field and 46% from three. That kind of efficiency just isn’t sustainable, let alone for a rookie and not against this Thunder defense. Shooting regression + bad matchup + market signaling under movement. I think this closes under 11.5 juiced, so grabbing plus-money here as a bonus on a good number.
If you want to get all of my picks in real-time in a locked text chat, use this Whop Picks button above to access the store page. In addition to my plays, there are also a bunch of betting resources available in the group as well. They include: NBA Market Ratings Updated 2-3x per week, NBA Schedule Grid displaying rest spots for every game, a coded bet tracker to help track your CLV efficiency metrics (including my updated in real time tracker), Key Numbers charts for NBA sides, WNBA sides, and NFL sides and totals to know the outcome frequency of individual numbers, a spread to moneyline conversion table for the NBA and NFL - with implied probabilities in percentages for people using betting exchanges.
The cost is $100/month. HOWEVER, you will receive an account credit for an entirely free month for any/every losing month. The group has been active for 19 months, and it has happened 4 times. It is as “risk-free” as any package in the sports betting space.
The consistency in beating the closing line should lead to consistent results on solid volume. I send out close to 150 bets per month during the NBA regular season, and close to 80% end up ahead of the market.
Come join for what should be an exciting second half of the NBA season!