Running Perfect Perfect

I know quite a few poker players read my posts and love when I throw in card references during my sports betting breakdowns. Well, in the poker community, running “perfect perfect” is when you catch the exact set of cards needed to win. Given my recent run on the sports side, I think we can blend the terminology over. After having no plays for Friday, I swept my plays both Saturday and Sunday. I ran perfect perfect over the weekend slates. I have now gone to +8.75units over my last 5 days with action. 🔥🔥🔥

I put out a few new plays on my twitter and on gave some out on the Buckets Live show today. I will break them all down here, but highly suggest watching the show/listening to the podcast because we also had some great discussions about sharp series prices, live betting scenarios, and you can hear other plays from Matt Moore (@HPBasketball) & Albert Nguyen (@AnalyticsCapper).

New NBA Best Bets Added

OKC Thunder +2 (0.4u), OKC ML +112 (0.3u), OKC -5 Alt (+205, 0.3u)
Fully broke this down on Buckets, but there has been such consistent sharp action on OKC for both games in Dallas that I am willing to back the Thunder here. We have reverse line movement, selling into key numbers, fading the insurance that only +2 gets me by dividing up my bet into fractions to weight the +money side. On the basketball side, I expect Thunder to have a better shooting game than the Mavericks because statistically, they are the better shooting team! Dallas has won with role players hitting huge shots and while its been impressive defense, I will fade the hot hands and take the young guns with an amazing coach to scheme up easy offense.
(btw the layout looks horrible adding in all 3 pictures so ill split the difference and put the ML slip 🍻)

Indiana Pacers +2.5 (0.5u)
Small bet on the Pacers that I grabbed while in studio but not live on Buckets yet. I could tell the market was moving Pacers direction, and the number was likely going to dry up. If I had more ability to move at the moment, I probably would have done something similar with the layout of OKC, but I just bet 0.5u. Considering I am also on Pacers (and OKC) futures, its ok my exposure is lower even in a spot I like because losing would put Knicks in a great spot and Pacers futures on the brink. Risk mitigation is equally important to establishing ceiling.

Denver -4 (-115, 0.75u)
I am not tied to futures in either direction of this series, this was a simple home team is being undervalued, likely CLV incoming, relative to key numbers. Since home teams havent won a single game in this series, and since key numbers matter a little less in the playoffs, I’ll play for less than 1u. Sign me up to hold any -4 when the consensus market is now at -5, thats good value. Since I paid -115, the value gained is slightly less than the CLV indicates, because its correlated to a vig, but no -4 (-110) was ever offered- this was the opening line.

So we stay organized…

🏀 NBA Best Bets Monday May 13th 🏀
Celtics -8 (0.5u)
OKC @ DAL Over 214.5 (1u)
OKC +2 (-109, 0.4u)
OKC ML +112 (0.3u)
OKC -5 Alt +205 (0.3u)

🏀 NBA Best Bets Tuesday May 14th 🏀
IND +2.5 (0.5u)
DEN -4 (-115, 0.75u)